XRP Whales Accumulate Above $0.75 Realized Price

Large holders of XRP (XRP) have continued accumulating through the token's decline from roughly $2.40 in January to the current $1.00 to $1.20 band, according to on-chain order-flow data reviewed by COINOTAG. The activity has not produced a sharp reversal. Average spot order sizes have remained in the “big-whale” category during 2026, while the 90-day taker cumulative volume delta — a measure of whether buyers or sellers are initiating trades — has moved to neutral after a buy-led start to the year. That combination points to quiet absorption and a basing range, rather than panic selling or a confirmed breakout. The data also show sellers have not forced a fresh capitulation, but buyers have not lifted price through resistance. That leaves XRP in a holding pattern where large wallets can absorb supply without chasing liquidity. The token's position relative to realized price is also notable: XRP changed hands near $1.10 against an aggregate holder cost basis around $0.75, meaning the average wallet remains above breakeven. For comparison, Bitcoin traded about 17% above its $52,900 realized price, while ether remained below its cost basis. In our reading, the tape shows large buyers stepping in gradually across a bear market phase, with the key altcoin still forming a base instead of breaking down.

U.S.-listed spot XRP exchange-traded funds showed a small but clear crack in demand on Aug. 5, when aggregate fund-flow data recorded a $3.58 million net outflow. The reversal followed a prior flat session and came from a single product: Bitwise's XRP fund. Even so, the broader ETF wrapper remains one of the most important institutional channels for the altcoin market. Cumulative net inflows across spot XRP funds still stand at $1.51281 billion, while daily trading value reached $20.16 million. Total net assets were $993.38 million, equivalent to about 1.52% of XRP's market capitalization, showing that one modest outflow day has not unwound the fund complex. The session also illustrated how uneven flows can be: among five tracked XRP products, only one reported redemptions, while the rest recorded no net change. Unlike decentralized venues that rely on an automated market maker, ETF shares trade through traditional brokerage channels, where creations and redemptions can lag underlying spot demand. The wider altcoin ETF backdrop was mostly cautious, with several products returning to flat flows after prior activity, which makes the XRP print one of the few notable moves in the category. Our take is that the $3.58 million exit is a tactical withdrawal, not a structural exit, as long as cumulative inflows and net assets remain near current levels.

Technical analysts are looking past the near-term weakness, with chartist ChartNerd flagging an 8.5-year cup-and-handle structure in XRP. In an Aug. 4 post on X, the analyst said the setup is one of the largest macro patterns in crypto and argued that the token is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. From that area, the chart projects Fibonacci extension targets at $8, $13, and $27, described by the analyst as a matter of timing rather than probability. The call was posted when XRP was near $1.06, after a correction that erased most of the past year's gains. ChartNerd also outlined a slower path, where the token spends the rest of the year consolidating around $1, similar to the June 2022 bottoming process. In that scenario, a Gaussian channel indicator catches up with price gradually instead of confirming a steep decline first. The $1 consolidation case was framed as an alternative to an earlier $0.90 to $0.70 target zone, not a rejection of the longer-term thesis. Trader CryptoBull countered that XRP could skip the lower $0.87 and $0.73 levels entirely. The split among chartists underscores that long-term structure and short-term momentum are not yet aligned. These remain unverified forecasts, and no move toward an all-time high has been confirmed by price action.

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant published a report on Aug. 6 characterizing whale accumulation across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP as consistent with the final stage of a bear market, while stopping short of confirming a price bottom. Research head Julio Moreno noted that the largest holder cohorts historically step in aggressively near or below realized price, a pattern typical of late-cycle phases. Bitcoin whale holdings—excluding exchanges, mining pools, ETFs, and corporate treasuries—have climbed from a December 2025 low of roughly 2.87 million BTC to 3.06 million, still below the 3.23 million bull-market peak. In Ethereum, wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 coins expanded their combined position from about 14 million to a record 19.6 million ETH, while mid-tier holders shed supply. Moreno cautioned that the risk-reward ratio has declined since the bear market began and another leg lower remains possible before a durable bottom forms.

(as of 09:57 UTC) Taken together, the three signals point to a market testing whether XRP's base is demand-led or flow-driven. The load-bearing evidence remains on-chain: large spot orders have stayed in whale territory while XRP remains above its $0.75 realized price. ETF flows add a second record, showing that a $3.58 million outflow has not impaired a $1.51281 billion cumulative fund base. Technical projections, however, are secondary to those primary records. The same on-chain record leaves room for another leg lower before a durable floor is confirmed. Until taker volume turns decisively positive and ETF redemptions stabilize, our base case is continued accumulation within a range, not a confirmed trend change and not a signal to extrapolate the chart targets.