XRP Spot ETFs Post $7.29M Outflow, Largest Since March

XRP News

XRP is retesting a make-or-break support zone after breaking out of a multi-year symmetric triangle that has framed its price since 2017. Our reading of the two-week chart shows the token completing a classic post-breakout retest, the phase where a market revisits the level it just cleared to confirm the move. Analysts tracking the structure argue the broader bullish thesis stays intact as long as the roughly $0.90 floor holds, with upside projections stretching toward $3.52 and, over a longer horizon, $9.27. A decisive close beneath that support, however, would neutralize the pattern and reopen downside risk for the altcoin.

Demand signals have cooled sharply across the XRP Ledger this month. On-chain data shows roughly 25,350 active wallets on a single day, the second-lowest daily reading of 2026, while new wallet creation slid to about 2,130 — the weakest pace since November 2024. The retreat suggests participants are sitting on their hands rather than chasing another shallow bounce after late-June dip-buying faded. Network usage, including activity through the ledger’s native automated market maker pools, is a leading tell for spot conviction, and thinning address counts typically precede lower liquidity. Our read is that the ledger is waiting on a concrete catalyst before fresh users return in size.

The futures market echoed that caution. Derivatives open-interest data shows XRP open interest on one major venue falling to roughly 397 million XRP, its lowest level in more than three months. Open interest measures the total value of outstanding perpetual and futures contracts, so a decline during price weakness usually means traders are trimming leveraged exposure rather than adding to it. That deleveraging is not outright bearish — it often marks a repositioning phase while investors wait for clearer direction. Still, shrinking participation removes a source of momentum, leaving spot flows to set the near-term tone for the token as conviction drains from the leveraged side of the book.

Institutional appetite weakened as well. US spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded a $7.29 million net outflow on July 8, their largest single-day withdrawal since March. The weekly tally turned red too, snapping a nine-week inflow streak, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum products swung back to positive flows over the week ending July 10. The divergence matters: it shows allocators rotating away from XRP while re-engaging the two largest assets. ETF flows are among the cleanest gauges of regulated institutional demand, and a broken streak signals that the wave of new capital that supported XRP through the spring has, at least temporarily, stalled.

Not every signal points down. Aggregated over 30 days, XRP funding rates on a leading exchange have swung to deeply negative territory after the token shed close to 70% from its July 2025 high. The funding rate is the periodic payment exchanged between long and short perpetual positions; a persistently negative print means shorts are paying longs, a sign that bearish bets dominate. Such one-sided pessimism has historically preceded sharp reversals, as crowded shorts become fuel for a squeeze. Contrarian analysts read the current extreme as a potential setup for a rebound, though a genuine catalyst would still be needed to trigger one against the prevailing bearish tone.

Momentum studies add nuance to the stress test. On the weekly chart XRP dipped to $1.1018, pressing toward the lower Bollinger Band near $1.0562, while the weekly relative strength index fell to 33.78 — deep in oversold territory that leaves sellers little room to push lower without inviting a rebound. On the monthly timeframe, buyers are defending the 20-period moving-average midline at $1.1039, and as long as that level holds the broader uptrend remains technically intact. On that framework a recovery back toward $2 stays mathematically in play, keeping the bull case alive despite the near-term drawdown that has rattled holders.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine frames the battle around the $1.1083 spot price. Our engine rates immediate resistance at $1.1121 a maximum 100/100, driven by the confluence of R1, the EMA 20 and the Ichimoku Tenkan, while first support at $1.0978 scores 99/100 on ATR Lower, S3 and S2. Derivatives lean crowded: open interest sits near $648 million, funding is a slim positive 0.0008%, and the long/short account ratio of 3.32 shows 76.8% of traders positioned long — a stretched setup vulnerable to a flush. With the Fear & Greed Index at 26 (Fear) and RSI near 47, a reclaim of $1.1121 opens $1.1475; a break below $1.0978 invalidates the bounce and exposes $1.0701.