Santiment Reads XRP Sentiment at 0.67, Its Lowest Since Aug. 17

Sentiment Ratio Sinks to 0.67

Social sentiment around XRP has fallen to its weakest reading since Aug. 17, with bearish comments outnumbering bullish ones as October opened. The XRP price still carries the gains of September's recovery, but crowd mood has swung the other way. Market analytics firm Santiment put the token's bull-to-bear comment ratio at 0.67:1, roughly 67 bullish comments for every 100 bearish ones across the X, Reddit, Telegram and other community feeds its models track. In its Oct. 1 sentiment dataset for Ethereum and XRP, the firm wrote that mood on both assets “abruptly turned deeply pessimistic” and stated plainly that any ratio below 1.0 means negative comments dominate the conversation. XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger, a layer-1 blockchain protocol, and it now draws deeper pessimism than Ethereum (ETH). ETH's own ratio sits at 0.89, also its weakest since June 7, though the gap between optimistic and bearish discussion there is smaller. The firm's model filters out neutral or off-topic posts, so the ratio is built to capture what participants expect from the altcoin rather than raw posting volume. In Santiment's framing, bullish comments express an expectation of rising prices, while bearish comments express an expectation of a decline. The firm's published chart tracks the positive-to-negative comment ratio for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP against Bitcoin's price, so the October divergence between the two tokens and the market leader is visible at a glance. A 0.67 reading implies that for every 100 participants calling for lower prices, only 67 expect gains, a shortfall that places XRP well outside balanced sentiment territory.

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Its Oct. 1 sentiment dataset for Ethereum and XRP.

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Contrarian Read Meets a Loss-Heavy Base

The bearish tilt invites the contrarian interpretation Santiment itself raised. A contrarian strategy looks for opportunity against the prevailing market view, on the theory that when most traders already expect a fall, the selling tied to that view is largely done. The firm described the current mix as fear returning while some fundamental market signals stay healthy, “exactly the kind of divergence contrarian traders typically wait patiently for,” but it attached a caveat: neither asset is guaranteed a prompt rebound, and it did not call a bottom. The metric measures expressed expectations rather than confirmed selling pressure, so a falling ratio describes a shift in mood, not a documented spike in order book activity or realized volume. The pessimism lands after a September rally that still left many holders underwater. Comparison data dated Sept. 23 showed XRP tokens active over the past year carrying an average unrealized return of -11.75%, a measure that sets current value against recorded acquisition cost, so a market that remains far below its all-time high has yet to clear the losses of earlier buyers. Network activity picked up during the rebound: when XRP pushed through $1.60 on Sept. 22, on-chain records counted 1,917 large transfers, each worth at least $100,000, alongside 3,647 newly created wallets on the mainnet. Those totals capture transfer counts and address creation only, and they do not by themselves measure net accumulation by large investors. The caution around XRP also stands out next to the enthusiasm Bitcoin's September run produced: when BTC crossed $87,300 on Sept. 21, positive sentiment spiked to its highest level since December 2024.

Ratio to Watch Into October

A technical and supply-side counterpoint to the sour sentiment emerged on Oct. 1, when analyst Ali Martinez, cited in market coverage relayed through Benzinga, identified a symmetrical triangle on XRP's 1-hour chart and set an hourly close above $1.54 as the confirmation threshold for a roughly 10% push toward $1.70. Trader CrediBULL Crypto described the token as boxed in on lower time frames but "highly explosive" once the breakout starts, and recommended buying spot and waiting. RLUSD supply backed the fundamental case: the Ripple stablecoin added about $112 million in circulation in a week, closing to within roughly $248 million of PayPal's $2.74 billion PYUSD, with 56% of supply on Ethereum and 44% on the XRPL. Institutional demand added another leg, as Evernorth moves to build a 473.3 million XRP treasury, backed by over $1 billion in private placement commitments.

A relative-valuation datapoint from Grayscale's research, relayed in an Oct. 1 report, puts XRP's market capitalization at nearly 6% of Bitcoin's, the highest ratio among the 10 major assets the firm classifies in its currency sector. The asset manager framed the figure as a benchmark for rival coins still early in their share gains, pointing to Zcash, whose market cap ratio against Bitcoin rose from below 0.1% a year ago to about 1.5%. Grayscale research chief Zach Pandl judged that ZEC's recent surge follows the historical path of past currency-sector assets: during the 2017–2018 bull market, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Dash each reached at least 3% of Bitcoin's market cap. He added that sustained privacy-technology leadership would allow Zcash to keep expanding its share, and the firm estimated mining rewards per device run roughly 2x Bitcoin's at current thresholds, before electricity and equipment costs.

A longer-horizon counterpoint came from Ali Martinez on Oct. 2, who published long-term technical targets on X for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana. On XRP's monthly chart he mapped an ascending triangle with resistance near $3.66, and said a monthly close above that level would open a theoretical formation target of $31.87. He paired the reading with similar structures elsewhere: a roughly two-year rising channel in Bitcoin, where a decisive break past about $125,000 would point to $190,000, a five-year-plus channel in Ethereum where $5,000 resistance precedes an $8,800 projection, and a potential cup-and-handle in Solana whose $295 neckline would set a $2,744 target on confirmation. All four figures are theoretical projections conditional on those resistances clearing.

(as of 05:59 UTC) The through-line in COINOTAG's reading is that sentiment extremes work best as a timing gauge, and the primary record here is the Oct. 1 Santiment release itself: its chart pairs the positive-negative comment ratios for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP against Bitcoin's price and documents the 0.67 reading alongside Ethereum's 0.89. Our desk treats the setup as a contrarian condition, with the data provider's own caveat attached, since no rebound is promised. The wider tape supports that caution: our coverage of Ripple's 1 billion XRP escrow unlock, Jane Street's XRP ETF stake lift and the LendingProtocolV1_1 validator vote shows supply, institutional positioning and ledger governance moving on schedules that ignore social mood. The number to watch next is whether bearish dominance holds through the first full week of October.