XRP Racks Up 48% Q3 Gain, Its Best Third Quarter in Four Years

Record ETF Demand Meets a Weak October

XRP (XRP) enters October 2026 on the back of its strongest third quarter in four years, having gained 48% over the quarter while still trading roughly 59% below the all-time high of $3.65 it set in July 2025. The XRP price carries that momentum into a month that history has treated poorly, even as institutional demand sits at record levels. US spot XRP exchange-traded funds now hold about 1.16 billion tokens, worth roughly $1.76 billion, and cumulative net inflows have climbed to a record near $1.68 billion, according to tracking data. The bid has been lumpy rather than steady. Daily inflows peaked near 22 million XRP in late August and ran about 20 million around September 24, and the flows clustered during rallies while going quiet through the summer drawdown, which makes ETF buying a follower of price rather than a leader so far.

October's track record is the counterweight. The token has averaged a 5.14% loss in the month and closed October lower in both 2024 and 2025, and it rarely leads the wider altcoin market in that stretch. This year's calendar stacks pressure from three directions. Markets price up to a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting. Ripple can release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on Thursday, October 1, an unlock that feeds potential sell-side supply into the token's circulating supply. The CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill watched closely by XRP holders, failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15, leaving the regulatory question open. Ripple's Swell conference in New York runs October 27 to 29, putting the company's biggest stage in the same week as the Fed decision. Seasonality favors the back half of the quarter instead: median returns have run 80% in November and 63% in December, and the same institutional bid shows up in vehicles such as Evernorth's XRP treasury nearing a Nasdaq debut.

Exchange Balances Drain as Whales Buy the Dip

On-chain records point the other way from the seasonal caution. XRP balances held on crypto exchanges have fallen from roughly 12.9 billion tokens in April to about 11 billion, and around 1.6 billion of those tokens left exchanges in the last two weeks alone, per the Glassnode exchange-balance chart. The heaviest withdrawals landed during the late-September pullback, although the step-like declines may partly reflect custody transfers rather than outright accumulation. Precedent still favors the supply thesis: the last comparable outflow wave arrived two days before the August run that lifted XRP from $1.00 to above $1.50. Large holders added 470 million XRP across five days last week, and Binance's scarcity index for the token has since slid to -0.94, its lowest reading since January 2025, a move our XRP coverage tracked earlier.

Chart structure backs the same story. The weekly chart shows XRP breaking the descending trendline that capped price since the July 2025 peak, confirmed by a surge in trading volume on the August candlestick, with the weekly RSI near 55 and above its midline. Support holds between $1.47 and $1.50, the zone from which the token bounced after sliding 9.7% from its weekly high, while the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70 rejected price in August and again near $1.66 in September. On the four-hour chart, a symmetrical triangle converges around October 3, with resistance at $1.59 and support at $1.47 and $1.38. A breakout targets $1.83, about 23% above the $1.49 lower boundary; a breakdown points toward $1.17, roughly 21% lower.

$1.70 Weekly Close Sets Up November

COINOTAG's reading is that the two datasets tell one story from different angles. The Glassnode exchange-balance series, an on-chain measure that cannot be revised after the fact, shows a drawdown of roughly 1.9 billion tokens since April, while ETF holdings of 1.16 billion tokens and record cumulative inflows near $1.68 billion mark the first sustained institutional bid for the asset. Set against that are a month with a 5.14% average loss, an escrow release of up to 1 billion XRP on October 1 and a 64% priced chance of a rate hike. Our base case: XRP ranges between $1.47 and $1.70 into October's final week, when Swell and the Fed decision land together, and a weekly close above $1.70 becomes the trigger for the seasonally strong November.