XRP Racks Up 48% Q3 Gain, Its Best Third Quarter in Four Years

Record ETF Demand Meets a Weak October

XRP enters October 2026 on the back of its strongest third quarter in four years, having gained 48% over the quarter while still trading roughly 59% below the all-time high of $3.65 it set in July 2025. The XRP price carries that momentum into a month that history has treated poorly, even as institutional demand sits at record levels. US spot XRP exchange-traded funds now hold about 1.16 billion tokens, worth roughly $1.76 billion, and cumulative net inflows have climbed to a record near $1.68 billion, according to tracking data. The bid has been lumpy rather than steady. Daily inflows peaked near 22 million XRP in late August and ran about 20 million around September 24, and the flows clustered during rallies while going quiet through the summer drawdown, which makes ETF buying a follower of price rather than a leader so far.

October's track record is the counterweight. The token has averaged a 5.14% loss in the month and closed October lower in both 2024 and 2025, and it rarely leads the wider altcoin market in that stretch. This year's calendar stacks pressure from three directions. Markets price up to a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting. Ripple can release up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on Thursday, October 1, an unlock that feeds potential sell-side supply into the token's circulating supply. The CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill watched closely by XRP holders, failed a Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15, leaving the regulatory question open. Ripple's Swell conference in New York runs October 27 to 29, putting the company's biggest stage in the same week as the Fed decision. Seasonality favors the back half of the quarter instead: median returns have run 80% in November and 63% in December, and the same institutional bid shows up in vehicles such as Evernorth's XRP treasury nearing a Nasdaq debut.

Exchange Balances Drain as Whales Buy the Dip

On-chain records point the other way from the seasonal caution. XRP balances held on crypto exchanges have fallen from roughly 12.9 billion tokens in April to about 11 billion, and around 1.6 billion of those tokens left exchanges in the last two weeks alone, per the Glassnode exchange-balance chart. The heaviest withdrawals landed during the late-September pullback, although the step-like declines may partly reflect custody transfers rather than outright accumulation. Precedent still favors the supply thesis: the last comparable outflow wave arrived two days before the August run that lifted XRP from $1.00 to above $1.50. Large holders added 470 million XRP across five days last week, and Binance's scarcity index for the token has since slid to -0.94, its lowest reading since January 2025, a move our XRP coverage tracked earlier.

Chart structure backs the same story. The weekly chart shows XRP breaking the descending trendline that capped price since the July 2025 peak, confirmed by a surge in trading volume on the August candlestick, with the weekly RSI near 55 and above its midline. Support holds between $1.47 and $1.50, the zone from which the token bounced after sliding 9.7% from its weekly high, while the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $1.70 rejected price in August and again near $1.66 in September. On the four-hour chart, a symmetrical triangle converges around October 3, with resistance at $1.59 and support at $1.47 and $1.38. A breakout targets $1.83, about 23% above the $1.49 lower boundary; a breakdown points toward $1.17, roughly 21% lower.

$1.70 Weekly Close Sets Up November

Fresh deposit data adds a supply-side counterpoint to the accumulation story. CryptoQuant records show seven-day altcoin inflow transactions to exchanges hitting their highest level since October 2025, and the uptick in deposits is broad rather than concentrated among a few large wallets, which raises the pool of potential sell-side liquidity even though transfers alone do not prove selling. The Q3 flow picture also got an update: US spot XRP ETFs drew roughly $307.9 million over the quarter, lifting cumulative inflows toward $1.8 billion, yet the funds recorded no net flow on September 29 and 30 after stronger buying earlier in the month. The market's job now, per the framework laid out in the new analysis, is to close above $1.54 and hold through the mid-$1.50s to reach the late-August high near $1.70, because until that happens the inflow record is a demand signal rather than proof a breakout is imminent.

(as of 06:40 UTC) COINOTAG's composite S/R engine puts XRP at $1.4864, down 2.63% in 24 hours, with a market cap of $93,693,069,287 and $2,056,312,739 traded. The strongest support sits at $1.3699, scored 87/100 by a confluence of the Keltner lower band, the 100-day EMA, the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA; $1.4353 scores 83/100 from the ATR lower band, the 0.382 Fibonacci, a low-volume node and S1, while $1.2907 carries 68/100 from the 100-day SMA, the Donchian lower band, the swing low and a high-volume node, with $1.1382 at 60/100 on the 0.786 Fibonacci and value area low. Overhead, $1.5315 is the nearest barrier at 69/100 from the 0.236 Fibonacci, R1, the ATR upper band and a high-volume node, with $1.6044 (59/100) the next test before $1.6999 at 57/100. Derivatives lean long with a positive funding rate of 0.0016%: open interest stands at $1.09B and 75.6% of accounts are long for a 3.09 long/short ratio. Sentiment reads 67/100, greed territory, while RSI at 55.23 and a bearish MACD signal sit inside an uptrend. Base case: XRP holds the $1.4353 support while ranging toward $1.53, and a daily close above $1.5315 opens the path to $1.6044.