TON Technical Analysis February 23, 2026: Will it Rise or Fall?

TON is consolidating in a narrow range at the 1.35$ level under general downtrend pressure; however, the positive histogram in MACD and neutral RSI level make both directional scenarios possible. Traders should monitor critical support and resistance levels and be prepared for potential breakouts.

Current Market Situation

TON is currently trading at 1.35$ and has recorded a slight 0.52% increase in the last 24 hours, getting stuck in the 1.30$ - 1.38$ range. The general trend continues as downtrend, the price remains below EMA20 (1.40$) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal. RSI at 41.34 is not approaching oversold but is in the neutral zone, while the positive histogram formation in MACD creates hope for short-term recovery. Volume is at a medium level of 51.43M$, in multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 12 strong levels were detected on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 3S/3R balance on 1W. There has been no major news flow specific to TON in the market recently, which creates an environment where technical levels take center stage. Although the short-term bearish EMA structure dominates, the bullish MACD divergence is noteworthy.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the upside scenario, the clear break above 1.3475$ (score:66/100) and then the critical 1.4253$ (score:72/100) resistances is required first. This breakout should be supported by increasing volume and confirmed by RSI crossing above the 50 level. The expansion of the MACD histogram and the price holding above EMA20 (1.40$) indicate that momentum has turned bullish. The Supertrend flipping (from bearish to bullish) would be a strong confirmation signal. The scenario strengthens with the testing of 1W resistances in MTF (e.g., 1.5370$); a potential Bitcoin recovery could also trigger TON to join the altcoin rally. In this scenario, invalidation occurs with the break below 1.3067$ support – traders should monitor this level as a stop-loss.

Target Levels

The first target is 1.5370$ (score:69/100), if broken, the medium-term target of 1.7732$ (score:25/100) comes into play. Fibonacci extension levels and MTF resistances support these targets; the R/R ratio looks attractive when calculated from current levels (approximately 1:2.5). You can view detailed charts on the TON Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by a high-volume break below 1.3067$ (score:72/100) support; if this level is violated, panic selling accelerates and RSI drops below 30. Persistent pressure below EMA20, continuation of Supertrend bearish, and the MACD histogram turning negative increase the risks. BTC's downtrend (currently at 64,760$ and -3.88%) is creating pressure on altcoins; given TON's high correlation, BTC support breaks (64,323$) could cause a cascade effect. Testing 1D and 1W supports (1.2647$) in MTF strengthens the scenario. The invalidation level is the break above 1.4253$ resistance – if this is not held, bearish momentum breaks down.

Protection Levels

The first protection is 1.2647$ (score:65/100), if broken, the main target becomes 0.8993$ (score:22/100). These levels align with Fibonacci retracements and volume profiles; for futures trading, use these levels for risk management in leveraged positions on the TON Futures Analysis. R/R is balanced here too (approximately 1:1.8).

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision point is between 1.3067$ support and 1.4253$ resistance; volume increase and closes are critical. For bullish, watch daily close above 1.3475$ + RSI>50, for bearish, close below 1.3067$ + MACD negative crossover. Wait when volatility is low, follow news flow (TON ecosystem updates). Early invalidation criteria play a key role in protecting positions in both scenarios.

Bitcoin Correlation

TON is an altcoin with high correlation to BTC; BTC is currently in downtrend at 64,760$ with Supertrend bearish. BTC breaking its 64,323$ or 62,095$ supports triggers a cascade drop in TON, rising dominance crushes alts. Conversely, if BTC breaks 65,490$ resistance and heads to 68,193$, the TON upside scenario strengthens. BTC key levels: Supports 64,323$/62,095$/59,967$, Resistances 65,490$/68,193$/71,069$. Altcoin traders should prioritize monitoring BTC movements.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Both scenarios are equally likely for TON; traders should use the 1.3067$-1.4253$ range as a pivot, waiting for volume/MACD/RSI confirmations. Monitor Supertrend flips on daily/4H charts and weekly MTF levels. Set up risk management before opening positions, the market is volatile. Visit the TON Spot and TON Futures pages for detailed spot and futures analyses. With this approach, be prepared for every outcome.