BlackRock strategists Amanda Lynam and Dominique Bly caution that the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver only a modest rate cut in 2026, with a cumulative easing of about 175 basis points in the current cycle. As policy gravitates toward a neutral interest rate, room for additional reductions in 2026 remains limited unless the labor market deteriorates sharply.

Market positioning, per LSEG data, indicates roughly two cuts priced in for 2026. This tempered monetary easing path may influence risk assets, including crypto markets, by shaping liquidity expectations while maintaining a cautious stance on macro risks.