21Shares Strategist Sees Bitcoin (BTC) Toward $90,000 Before Fed Meeting

Mena Maps $85,000 Before $90,000

Matt Mena, a strategist at asset manager 21Shares, expects the Bitcoin (BTC) price to work toward $90,000 once the short-term economic uncertainty still hanging over the market clears, and he flags $85,000 as the resistance that has to break first. The horizon is near: the producer price index for September is due on October 15, the last major macro release before the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. "While a pullback toward $81,000 remains possible, we believe the balance of risk tilts toward breaking $85,000 and pushing on toward $90,000 once the remaining macro uncertainty clears," Mena said in remarks laying out his path. The PPI, which measures the selling prices domestic producers receive, is his designated trigger for a renewed attempt at that level. His supporting record is specific: since 2023, the seven days that follow a core inflation print hotter than economists expected have produced an average Bitcoin (BTC) gain of 1.21%, which he reads as evidence that inflation surprises do not reliably stop a recovery. He also argues that last week's sell-off had already absorbed most of the inflation risk, a first assessment that trading since the print has tested. Mena treats the largest proof-of-work asset as a gauge of liquidity and of investors' willingness to hold risk assets such as stocks, which is why the macro calendar, not on-chain activity, drives his short-term map.

The CPI Print Behind the Call

The inflation backdrop is unambiguous. The September consumer price index report showed prices up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, while core inflation, which strips food and energy, rose 0.3% against the 0.2% economists expected and 2.6% on the year. Bitcoin slipped below $83,000 as the figures landed, moving toward $82,800, after testing the $81,000-$82,000 band during the preceding sell-off; support near $81,300 was already in focus before the data, and we tracked the stabilization near $82,000 once the print was out. Levels below that zone carry institutional weight: data from Glassnode puts the spot ETF cost basis at roughly $81,500, an estimate of the average purchase price attached to US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF holdings, and Bitcoin has rebounded from that level twice. A break under it opens the next major downside support near $77,500, the rung we laid out in the $81,000 support test, and the Bitcoin technical analysis page keeps the same ladder current. Flows have turned supportive: on October 13, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $175.62 million in net inflows, reversing the prior session's outflows, with Fidelity's FBTC drawing $103.06 million and BlackRock's IBIT $65.89 million. Ethereum funds also returned to positive territory, taking in $24.84 million after ten straight days of net redemptions. Beyond Bitcoin, Mena's quarterly figures put Ethereum ETF inflows above $3 billion and Solana above $500 million, the strongest quarter for both this year; he sees ETH consolidating near $2,500 before another attempt at the $2,800-$3,000 range, with $130 a possible Solana level by the end of the quarter, targets that sit inside the wider altcoin targets universe.

The Ladder From $83,000 to $90,000

Measured from where the market stands, the forecast has a clear ladder: with Bitcoin (BTC) above $83,000, the $90,000 target sits roughly 8% higher while the $85,000 gate is less than 3% away, so the resistance, not the target, is the event to price. The 1.21% weekly average rests on a small sample of core CPI surprises since 2023 and describes what followed past prints, not this week's PPI. Until the October 27-28 FOMC meeting is behind the market, the $81,500 cost basis and the $77,500 floor beneath it decide whether the path holds; a close below $81,500 would reset the arithmetic and hand the argument to the pullback case Mena still keeps open.