HYPE Technical Analysis February 23, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

HYPE is trading at the $26.30 level with a 9.74% drop in the last 24 hours, and weak momentum makes both bullish breakout and bearish continuation scenarios possible. While RSI 40.77 wanders in the neutral zone, Bitcoin's downtrend carries extra risk for altcoins.

Current Market Situation

HYPE's current technical chart shows short-term downtrend dominance. With price at the $26.30 level, 24-hour change -9.74% and trading volume $554.07M at medium level. Daily range squeezed between $26.22 - $29.16, signaling reduced volatility.

RSI(14) at 40.77 level in neutral zone, not approaching oversold but reflecting momentum loss. MACD histogram negative and giving bearish signal, bearish crossover continuing. Price trading below EMA20 ($29.70), confirming short-term bearish trend. Supertrend indicator in bearish mode and next resistance at $34.81.

Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 15 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: balanced 3 supports/3 resistances in 1D, slightly bearish 1S/2R in 3D, support-heavy 4S/3R in 1W. Critical supports $25.4761 (68/100), $24.2831 (63/100), $20.4800 (61/100); resistances $31.0442 (73/100), $28.5669 (68/100), $32.3675 (62/100). With volume decline, the market is squeezed at a decision point.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, a clear breakout above $28.5669 resistance is required first. This level is near EMA20 and invalidates the short-term bearish trend. To confirm the breakout, volume increase (20%+), RSI above 50, and positive divergence in MACD histogram should be observed. Supertrend turning bullish (close above $34.81) would be a strong momentum signal.

Reaction buying from 1W supports (holding above $20.48), supported by 3D resistance breakout, strengthens the scenario. Bitcoin testing $65,914 resistance could trigger an altcoin rally. Look for confirmations like volume spike and candlestick patterns (bullish engulfing). In this scenario, invalidation is a close below $25.4761 support.

Target Levels

First target $31.0442 (73/100 score), then $32.3675. With strong momentum, $41.6500 (28 score long-term target) possible. R/R ratio from current level approximately 1:2.5 (risk to $25.48). Monitor Fibonacci extension levels and targets derived from previous highs ($34.81).

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario triggers with a high-volume breakdown below $25.4761 support. This level is the short-term base and confirms downtrend continuation. Additional risks: new bearish divergence in MACD, RSI below 30, breakdown after low-volume consolidation. Bitcoin closing below $65,632 support accelerates liquidity hunting in HYPE.

If Supertrend remains bearish and lower low forms in 1D (below $26.22), momentum increases. MTF 1W supports ($24.28, $20.48) could be tested. Decreasing volume or selling pressure (chain of red candles) strengthens the scenario. Invalidation occurs with a close above $28.5669, activating the bullish scenario.

Protection Levels

First protection $24.2831 (63/100), then $20.4800. Extreme bearish target $14.7218 (22 score). These levels should be monitored as stop-loss points for long positions. R/R from current level around 1:1.8. Derived from previous lows and Fibonacci retracement levels.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision levels: Breakout above $28.5669 (bull trigger), breakdown below $25.4761 (bear trigger). Volume profile critical: spike for bull, sustained selling volume for bear. RSI divergence and MACD crossovers as early warnings. Candlestick closes (4H/1D) await confirmation. Additional data can be followed from HYPE Spot Analysis and HYPE Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $65,248 level in -3.46% downtrend, Supertrend bearish. Altcoins like HYPE highly correlated to BTC (0.85+), pressure increases below $25.48 in HYPE if BTC breaks $65,632 support. Conversely, HYPE bullish scenario supported if BTC surpasses $65,914 resistance. BTC supports $64,054 / $60,000; resistances $68,225 / $71,023 should be monitored. Dominance increase triggers altcoin selling.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

Market in consolidation, both scenarios equally likely. Watchlist: 1) $28.57 / $25.48 breakouts, 2) Volume changes, 3) RSI/MACD signals, 4) BTC movements. Weekly closes trend-determining. Traders should position according to their own risk management, stop-loss mandatory. Follow spot and futures pages for updates.