BIT Flags Five Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Indicators Bullish at Once, First Since October 2025

BIT Reads a New Upcycle From On-Chain Data

The reasoning behind the latest bullish read on Bitcoin (BTC) starts with who is in profit rather than with chart patterns. Digital asset financial services firm BIT published an analysis on Friday, October 9, showing that five on-chain indicators have moved into bullish territory at the same time for the first time since October 2025. These gauges measure the cost basis and behavior of coins that actually changed hands, read directly from the Bitcoin ledger, and BIT argues the record points to a new upcycle, the kind of expansion phase that has historically followed each Bitcoin halving, likely beginning around September 1, 2026. The Bitcoin (BTC) price stood at $83,345 when the analysis was published. Cycle-reading tools from the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart to on-chain cost gauges are asking the same question about where this market sits, and BIT's answer leans on five measures: the short-term holder realized price, the True Market Mean, MVRV, NUPL and VDD. Each tracks a different slice of holder behavior. The short-term holder realized price reflects the average acquisition cost of recent buyers. The True Market Mean reflects the cost basis of actively moving capital. MVRV compares the market value of the coin with its realized value. NUPL shows whether unrealized positions across the market are, in aggregate, in profit or loss. VDD captures how long-term holders move their coins. BIT's market-regime model, which turns these inputs into buy and sell signals, has held a 67% net buy ratio for two consecutive months, after spending most of the 2025 downturn without issuing a buy signal at all.

The Two Levels BIT Is Watching

BIT anchors the cycle call to two prices. The short-term holder realized price now sits at $74,319. Bitcoin (BTC) traded below that gauge last October near $112,300, then re-crossed above it this August at roughly $68,000, which means recent buyers as a group moved back into profit at that point. The condition the firm sets is straightforward: while price holds above the gauge and the gauge itself keeps rising, the bullish signal stays intact. The second level, the True Market Mean, stood at $77,460 in the analysis, about 7.6% below spot. Historically, BIT finds that bull phases have tended to persist while price held above this slower-moving measure of active capital, though early bull phases have at times dipped below it briefly. The firm cautions that the True Market Mean moves slowly and is meant for judging the medium-term trend, not daily swings, and it judges that how long price stays above that line matters more for confirming the upcycle than any single daily close. These are cost-basis levels rather than chart-derived ones; our own Bitcoin technical analysis tracks conventional support and resistance separately. The remaining three gauges tell a similar story with different timing. BIT's own MVRV calculation, which treats zero as the bull-bear line, read 0.20 at publication, and the firm notes the gauge rarely exceeded 0.3 during the 2023–2025 bull market, which makes the current reading comparatively strong on that scale. NUPL returned to bullish territory for the first time since October 2025. Growing unrealized profit, BIT explains, can widen leverage use and buying pressure, while mounting losses tend to feed stop-loss selling and thinner volume. VDD flipped last. It follows the HODL behavior of long-term holders, moves more slowly than the others, and is therefore less sensitive to short-term corrections inside an uptrend; its arrival means long-term holder behavior now also matches a bull-market configuration.

Why 67% Is Not 100%

The model's own fine print bounds the call. BIT states that the five gauges are only part of what feeds the full regime model, and that the remaining indicators have not yet turned bullish or sit only marginally above their bullish thresholds. The net buy ratio itself reads 67%, not the 100% it printed on October 1, 2025, before sliding to 33% a month later and to 0% by December 1. Flow context cuts the other way: our coverage recorded how the coin recovered to $82,600 after a week of ETF outflows, a backdrop the on-chain turn has had to overcome. BIT frames its two levels as a condition, not a guarantee. A brief dip below $74,319 or $77,460 would not, on the firm's reading, end a cycle, but a sustained stay underneath would be the first sign that the recovery is weakening.