Bitcoin (BTC) Faces 65% Fed Rate-Hike Odds After Trump Defers to Chair Warsh

Trump Steps Back From the Rate Fight

President Donald Trump said on August 31 that US interest rates remain too high and that America should carry the lowest borrowing costs in the world — but he stopped short of opposing a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump was asked twice whether he opposed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh raising rates, and whether he had discussed policy with him directly. He answered “no” to both, adding, “I have great respect for him, he’ll do what he’s supposed to do.” The remarks mark a noticeable shift in tone from a president who has publicly pressed the Fed to ease for more than a year; as recently as August 20 he complained the economy was “suffering through these ridiculous rates.” Trump also floated growth numbers far above official data, claiming US GDP “can reach 14, 15, 16, even 20” percent without stoking inflation. The government’s second estimate, published August 26, put second-quarter real GDP at a 1.5% annualized pace, down from 2.1% in the first quarter — making Trump’s figure more than thirteen times the printed number. Growth anywhere near that range has occurred only once in the postwar era, driven by wartime mobilization. Trump’s logic runs the other way: stronger growth improves US creditworthiness and should therefore justify lower rates, not higher ones. The deferral carries weight because of who Warsh is and why he sits in the chair. Trump installed the former Fed governor in May after criticizing his predecessor, Jerome Powell, for refusing to cut aggressively. Instead, Warsh used his first Jackson Hole appearance on August 28 to call inflation the central bank’s “primary focus,” pointing to July PCE inflation of 3.7% against the 2% target — a framing widely read as a signal of coming hikes. Markets now assign roughly 65% odds to a hike at the September 16 meeting, with the current target range at 3.5%–3.75%.

Bessent’s Yen Signal Hits G20

Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent injected fresh policy noise into global markets with comments on Japanese monetary policy. In an interview circulating September 1, Bessent said he is confident the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan will take measures that push the yen higher, and claimed he holds “information the market does not have.” A US Treasury Secretary openly hinting at undisclosed knowledge of another sovereign central bank’s plans is rare, and the remark extends a pressure campaign that — since the late-July US–Japan coordinated intervention — has shifted from currency markets to the BoJ’s rate path. Dollar-yen fell on August 31 as bets on an additional BoJ hike firmed, and a September move is now the market’s baseline scenario. Bessent is scheduled to meet Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and BoJ Governor Ueda on the sidelines of the G20 finance ministers’ gathering on Monday. The wider macro backdrop tightened in parallel. Renewed US–Iran strikes, plus Trump’s reference to further attacks, lifted WTI crude to $85–86 a barrel after it had dipped toward $80 late last week on hopes of limited sanctions impact. Rekindled inflation fear pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly above 4.75% — its highest in roughly one year and seven months, since January 2025 — while Japan’s 10-year yield touched 2.95%, a level last seen in 1996, with the psychological 3% mark now in view. Against that tape, the candlestick charts show risk assets unwinding. Bitcoin (BTC) closed around $78,161 after profit-taking capped its run above $80,000, and was trading near $78,600 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) softened before the $2,500 threshold and sits near $2,470, Solana (SOL) held ground around $102, and XRP slid to $1.36 as it bled out August’s rally. Leverage is amplifying the swings — elevated margin trading activity and thinning order books produced visible slippage on the way down, a pattern echoed across high-beta altcoins from Shiba Inu (SHIB) on up. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

September 16 in Focus

COINOTAG’s aggregate market data frames the tension: our Fear & Greed Index reads 69 (Greed), Bitcoin holds 69.0% of COINOTAG-tracked market cap of roughly $2.29 trillion. A hawkish Fed, an oil shock and fiscal pressure are colliding — yet sentiment remains greedy, a positioning mismatch worth watching into the September 16 decision.