Bitcoin (BTC) Climbs to $81K as Fed Signals More Rate Hikes

US 10-Year Yield Revisits 5%

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $81,265 in Thursday trading — COINOTAG's live spot reading, recorded shortly after 21:45 UTC — even as the United States Treasury market reasserted itself as the dominant force in global risk pricing. The 10-year yield finished the New York session at 4.998%, up roughly six basis points on the day, and briefly traded above the 5% line intraday. Earlier in the week the same benchmark touched 5.041%, its highest print since 2007. Shorter and longer maturities moved in step: the two-year yield rose to 4.748% and the 30-year to 5.327%, lifting the entire curve as traders repriced the policy path higher.

The repricing is a direct echo of the Federal Reserve's own messaging. The central bank lifted its target range by 0.25 percentage points this week to 3.75-4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh used his post-meeting press conference to stress that inflation has stayed too high for too long. The projections released alongside the decision showed a majority of committee members expecting at least one further increase this year, and rate futures now assign roughly a 55% probability to another quarter-point move at the next meeting. Strategists at Edward Jones argued the initial dip in long yields straight after the hike reflected strengthened credibility on inflation, before caution about additional tightening returned on Thursday. The dollar index touched 100.4 intraday — a seven-week high and a weekly gain near 1.3% — before easing back to 99.885 at the close, and the bond market's message left equity desks taking the hawkish tone in stride.

For digital assets the arithmetic is direct. A 5% risk-free yield on short-dated Treasuries competes squarely with returns offered across DeFi and with the case for holding a non-yielding asset, and every basis point added to the terminal rate tightens that competition. That Bitcoin still advanced roughly 4% through the session — from near $78,000 in Asian hours to $81,265 — is the detail traders are now weighing.

BOJ Lifts Rates to 1.25%

The Bank of Japan delivered the week's second hawkish shock. Its policy board raised the short-term policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, at a meeting held just three months after the June decision — a clear acceleration from the roughly six-month cadence the bank had kept since March 2024. Two board members dissented, a striking contrast with the unanimously approved Federal Reserve move two days earlier, and markets read the split as a sign the tightening pace may stay measured.

The yen sold off on the decision anyway, sliding into the 157 area against the dollar. USD/JPY briefly touched 158.05, a two-week high, before paring gains to around 156.7 after Japan's finance ministry announced a currency rate-check — a step widely treated as the precursor to direct intervention. Strategists at Standard Chartered noted the BOJ failed to deliver the forceful signal markets had hoped for. The dollar's strength rippled across Asia: USD/KRW rose to 1,385.62, with an intraday high near 1,389, leaving the won at its weakest since August as the widening US-Korea rate gap amplified dollar-asset returns.

Risk assets pushed back anyway. Equities closed higher on both sides of the Pacific — the S&P 500 at 7,637.77, up 1.14%, and the Nikkei 225 at 65,018.95, up 1.38% — helped by crude oil's third straight decline, which left WTI below $100 as receding Saudi supply concerns eased one source of inflation pressure. Gold climbed 0.85% to $4,377.29 an ounce, briefly clearing $4,390 for a one-week high, and now sits against the $4,400-$4,440 support-resistance zone technicians are watching. In crypto, Ethereum (ETH) traded at $2,630, Solana (SOL) added 5.63% to $105.79 — the largest 24-hour gain among tracked majors — and XRP rose 2.41% to $1.339, moves that suggest demand for assets with fixed or programmatic circulating supply remains firm despite the hawkish turn. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

Two central banks, one message: restrictive policy will outlast what markets priced a month ago. Yet COINOTAG's aggregate data shows risk appetite intact — our Fear & Greed Index reads 56 (Greed), Bitcoin makes up 67.7% of our tracked market capitalization of $2.41 trillion, and capital has continued rotating into Bitcoin DeFi strategies rather than parking in cash. Holding a fixed-supply asset against a 5% yield is now the decisive test.