Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase Premium Turns Positive After Nearly 100 Days, Ki Young Ju Says

Coinbase Premium Turns Positive

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing the clearest sign yet that United States buyers are back: the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the percentage gap between Coinbase's BTC/USD pair and Binance's BTC/USDT pair, flipped above zero in late August after nearly 100 consecutive days underwater. A positive reading means US buyers — Coinbase being the main USD on-ramp for institutions — are paying more than the global market, a classic marker of American spot ETF and institutional demand. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju publicly flagged the shift, writing that the premium turning positive points to bullish US institutional sentiment. The streak had stretched to 97 straight sessions of negative premium by August 23, the longest on record, since May 19.

Inside the $80,000 Breakout

The premium flip landed on top of a violent repricing. Bitcoin climbed from roughly $64,000 on August 18 to an intraday high of $81,265 on August 25 — a gain of nearly 25% in a week, its strongest weekly performance in over three years. The early leg was turbocharged by liquidations: as price sliced through $70,000, around $2.74 billion in short positions were forcibly closed in 24 hours, roughly 90% of all liquidations. What made the move credible to our desk, though, was what followed — spot US Bitcoin ETFs logged their eighth consecutive day of net inflows on August 26, adding $232 million that day and lifting August's monthly total to about $3.03 billion.

Jackson Hole Rate Shock

The rally then hit a macro wall. After Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on August 28, Bitcoin dropped roughly 4% from the $80,000 zone to an intraday low of $76,909, with the BTC/USD price on Binance capturing the flush in real time. Warsh — who has refused to give forward guidance since taking office in May — stopped short of promising a September hike, but markets repriced aggressively: odds of a rate increase at the September 15-16 FOMC jumped from roughly 35% to about 60%. Equities, gold and other risk assets sold off in sympathy. For deeper framing of the speech, see our Kevin Warsh September hike odds analysis.

The inflation math explains the reaction. The Fed's preferred gauge, PCE, runs at about 3.7% year-over-year against a 2% target, and the six-month annualized pace sits near 4.1% — Warsh argued the inflation battle is not over and dismissed recent favorable prints as insufficient. His hawkish tone lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, a headwind that had been absent during the prior week's liquidity-driven ascent. The deeper conflict is structural: the Treasury is expanding long-bond buybacks to support market liquidity, while the Fed leans toward tightening — two forces pulling Bitcoin's macro backdrop in opposite directions.

Bounce Back Toward $78,000

Sellers pushed Bitcoin below $77,000 on August 29 — a five-day low — before dip buyers reclaimed the level, and the coin later traded back near $78,000 after briefly retaking $80,000. The weekly high stands near $81,500. The correction spilled into altcoins: Ethereum slipped about 3% to roughly $2,430 after failing at $2,500, XRP fell near 3.2% to about $1.38, and BCH was the worst major performer, dropping more than 7% under $250. The total crypto market shed roughly $80 billion in 24 hours to about $2.72 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance holding above 57%.

Sentiment Back to Greed

The Fear & Greed Index has whipsawed back to 68 — solidly in greed territory — after sitting at 28 in fear earlier in the stretch, and it had already spiked from 27 to 74 mid-week before cooling to 65. Cautionary voices persist. CoinShares co-founder Jean-Marie Mognetti noted that more than 100 crypto projects have shut down, filed for bankruptcy or halted operations in 2026, warning that "the rally is not a verdict." Coinbase Institutional's weekly commentary likewise flagged weak crypto-native demand as the main constraint, arguing that the absorption capacity of spot ETFs and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve-style corporate treasuries remains limited, so macro easing alone cannot fully explain price action. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

COINOTAG Composite: $79,781 Resistance Ahead

Our proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames the map precisely. Bitcoin trades at $78,107, up 0.93% in 24 hours, just under the $79,780 resistance — rated 75/100 (STRONG) on the confluence of the Fibo 0.000 and Donchian Upper bands. Immediate support sits at $77,772, scored 79/100 (Fibo 0.214, Ichimoku Tenkan), with the heavier $73,460 shelf at 81/100 (Flip R→S, Fibo 0.382, Supertrend). RSI at 71.31 is stretched and the trend is bullish on MACD. Derivatives look healthy, not frothy: funding at 0.0025%, open interest of $15.24 billion and a 1.23 long/short ratio suggest no leverage blow-off, while greed at 68 argues against fresh chasing — readers weighing cycle timing can consult our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide. A daily close above $79,780 opens the $87,919 level (53/100); losing $77,772 invalidates the near-term bull setup and exposes $75,712 and $73,460.