Bitcoin (BTC) Down 19% Into Anthropic's Nasdaq IPO

Selling Into a $64.4 Billion Debut

Bitcoin (BTC) has surrendered roughly 19% across the 50 days running into Anthropic’s Nasdaq debut, replicating the drawdown the market recorded before SpaceX went public in June. The Bitcoin (BTC) price read near $65,450 at 12:06 UTC on Sunday and sits close to $65,466 now, up about 0.3% since that reading but 2.5% lower across 24 hours. The retreat came in stages rather than in a single shock: the coin lost the $70,000 line on Nov. 13 and slipped under $67,000 over the weekend. Through the stretch the coin has not managed a sustained recovery leg, and the weekend left it near the lows of the whole move.

Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of AI models, is scheduled to begin trading on Nasdaq on Nov. 19 under the ticker ANT. It is offering 825 million shares priced at $70 to $78 each, an issuance worth up to $64.4 billion at the top of the range that would value the firm near $1.4 trillion, and a further $26 billion private placement runs alongside the public sale. At that size the deal would rank among the largest public offerings ever priced. Unlike a crypto ICO, the listing is a straight equity offering, yet its pull on liquidity is the point, and the SpaceX precedent anchors the whole debate: SpaceX went public after raising what was then the largest sum ever taken in an IPO, and Anthropic’s raise is close enough in scale that traders are treating the analogy as more than a chart curiosity. The wider Bitcoin market is being measured against it, and a chart comparison published by the Rand Group account on X overlays the two drawdowns, with the curves falling by almost the same margin over the same 50-day window.

@randgroup · X post

Rand Group.

View on X

The parallel is where the argument now sits. The listing itself did not mark the bottom last time: Bitcoin (BTC) kept falling for another 18 days after SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO this summer, and only then did it turn. From that base it recovered, and 100 days after the IPO its price stood 28% above the close recorded on listing day. Capturing that move demanded a 100-day HODL through more than a month of further losses first. Tom Lee, the managing partner at Fundstrat, reads the current drawdown the same way: a temporary rotation of money into mega-IPOs, as investors sell liquid assets to buy shares in the largest offerings of the year. In that reading, the coin is being sold because it is the easiest large position to unwind, not because anything changed on the asset itself. Strive CEO Matt Cole has run the same arithmetic forward and argues that a repeat of the pattern would carry Bitcoin to $90,000 by the end of February 2027, a window that matches the same 100-day span. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao shared the comparison on X and called Cole’s figures “an interesting analysis.” The replies under his post pushed back, blaming selling by Binance itself rather than the IPO calendar for the drop. The dispute matters because the two explanations call for different outcomes: an equity-calendar drain ends when the listing prices, while exchange selling carries no expiry of its own. Earlier COINOTAG coverage flagged that 73% of short-term supply sits underwater, a depth the current slide has only extended, and the coin had already booked a nearly 15% weekly loss on ETF outflows before this weekend.

@cz_binance · X post

Shared the comparison on X.

View on X

Extreme Fear and a 24.5 RSI

On the technical side, COINOTAG’s composite support and resistance scoring, which layers volume and volatility signals on top of standard pivot points, marks $62,992 as the strongest shelf beneath the market at 87 out of 100, with the next shelf sitting near the $61,576 re-test level flagged in earlier coverage. The nearest resistance sits at $65,747, scored 72, just above the live price of about $65,466. Momentum is stretched: the 24.5 RSI and a Fear and Greed Index of 10 sit deep in extreme fear, while a 3.21 long/short account ratio and funding of -0.0007% show leveraged accounts still leaning long. The reading holds only while that shelf holds: a daily close below $62,992 would break the SpaceX parallel, and a move back above $65,747 would put the 100-day rebound window back in play. The full map is maintained on the Bitcoin technical analysis page.