Bitcoin (BTC) Set for First Bearish Monthly Close in Four Months After 3.8% October Drop

October Rally Stalled at 13.75 Million Yen

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its first bearish monthly candle in four months, with October set to close about 3.8% lower and the asset trading near 12.68 million yen late in the month. The monthly chart records the sequence clearly. Trading opened October close to 13.18 million yen, rallied within days to 13.75 million yen, and then ran into the year-opening price zone around 13.70 million yen. For Bitcoin, that zone capped the advance. Sellers took control from there and pushed the market down to an October low near 12.44 million yen in mid-month, before a partial recovery settled price around 12.68 million yen. Unless the final session changes the outcome, the three consecutive bullish monthly candles that began in July end here. A monthly candle turns bearish when the close lands below the open, and at 12.68 million yen against an opening print of 13.18 million yen, the arithmetic is settled short of a last-session surge. Live market data puts the Bitcoin price at $78,000, down 4.1% over the past 24 hours. The failure at the year's starting level has brought overhead pressure back into focus. Monthly-chart readings suggest profit-taking clusters where the year began, even as some buying reappears lower down. The October low in the 12.40 million yen zone is the nearest support candidate: holding it would keep a floor under the market, while a clear break below risks stretching the correction. The 13.70 million yen zone behaved as mid-term resistance all month, and the uptrend cannot rebuild until price clears it decisively. A close here leaves the market well short of the year's opening mark, so November would have to start with a reclaim of that zone if the broader uptrend is to resume. For context on where this pullback sits in the longer cycle, our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide maps the historical bands.

ETF Outflows Topped $600 Million in October

The weekly chart shows three consecutive bearish weeks, and the current week has brought no strong rebound, leaving price around 12.68 million yen. Even so, most of the ground regained since July is still held, and the readings do not yet confirm a downtrend. The level that matters is near 12.0 million yen, which capped rallies in May and now has to convert into support: holding it would preserve the recovery from July and keep a renewed test of 13.0 million yen on the table, while losing it would raise the risk of a longer correction. Weekly momentum indicators send a mixed message. MACD has climbed back into positive territory and sits above its signal line, an improvement over the bearish setup that dominated the first half of the year, though the histogram is shrinking and near-term momentum is fading. Under the surface, crypto mining is moving the opposite way from price. On-chain hashrate data shows the 30-day moving average spent much of the first half of 2026 below the 60-day average as falling prices squeezed mining revenue, then crossed above it in late August. By the end of October the 30-day average stood near 1.03 ZH/s against roughly 0.98 ZH/s for the 60-day line, so the proof of work network is hashing harder even as price cools. ETF demand tells a choppier story. Flows through US spot ETF products have been unstable since August: outflows of about $500 million landed in early October, and outflows exceeded $600 million in late October, even though some days in the second half saw inflows of roughly $500 million. Large inflows have repeatedly been followed by outflows, leaving no sustained accumulation through the channel. One plausible brake is uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, which could shift policy and market expectations. Despite the selling, price held near $80,000 through most of the month, which suggests demand outside the ETF channel is absorbing supply.

Resistance at $81,947, Support at $76,199

Our composite scoring frames the range the market has to work through after the slide to $78,000. The strongest overhead level sits at $81,947 and scores 96 out of 100, lining up with the zone where October's rally stalled. Nearest support at $76,199 scores 50 out of 100, and a daily close below it would bring the moderate levels lower on the board into play. Positioning shows no forced unwind: open interest stands at $16.09 billion and perp funding is 0.0058%, mildly positive, so leveraged longs are still paying to stay in. The past 24 hours saw 64% of $215 million in liquidations hit longs. RSI reads 38.57, the MACD signal is bearish and the daily trend is tagged a downtrend, while the Fear and Greed Index sits at 51, neutral. The 4.1% daily drop extends Thursday's slip to $78,800 after the US GDP beat, and our Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks the levels as they move.