Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Near $76,800 as Democrats Lead US Midterm Counts

Democrats Lead Early Midterm Counts

Bitcoin (BTC) price held near $76,800 in the early hours of Wednesday as vote counting in the United States midterm elections pointed to Democratic gains in Congress. Market data placed the coin around $76,791 at 02:14 UTC, a move of just 0.09% over 24 hours, while United States equity futures dropped sharply. On the prediction market Kalshi, contract prices put the probability of a Democratic House majority at about 99% and a Senate majority at about 98%, up from a Senate reading near 90% earlier in the evening; these are traded probabilities, not certified results. In the Senate contests, Democrat Jon Ossoff looked set to keep his Georgia seat, and Roy Cooper won in North Carolina, giving Democrats gains in several battleground states. Traders read the shift as a constraint on the Trump administration's economic agenda. The concern weighing on risk assets is that a Democratic Congress could impose nationwide limits on data-center growth, a drag on artificial intelligence stocks that had already pulled back in recent weeks on slowing spending. Against that backdrop, the coin's restraint stood out: Bitcoin markets tracked the equity slide on election night without matching it.

COINOTAG's composite reading confirms the cautious tone: spot sits at $76,761 at the time of writing, down 0.3% over 24 hours, with the trend still a downtrend and the relative strength index at 36.27. The strongest resistance overhead is $78,346, a level scored 100 out of 100 where the 100-period EMA, the R1 pivot and the 0.382 Fibonacci level converge; support at $75,023 below carries the pack's highest score at 89/100. Funding on perpetual futures reads 0.0071% and open interest stands near $16.0 billion, alongside a separate COINOTAG finding that top perp traders on four DEXs went 75% long within 15 hours. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, in fear territory. The full Bitcoin technical analysis tracks these levels as the counts arrive.

Dollar Slides as Treasuries Rally

The election-night selloff spread far beyond digital assets. S&P 500 futures reversed an opening gain of 0.5% and fell by nearly 1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures lost 2%. The dollar lost ground against the other major currencies at the same time. United States government bonds moved the other way: the 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.90%, a move traders read as reflecting expectations that a Democratic Congress would limit further tax cuts and fiscal spending, easing the pressure of future debt issuance. Asian equities swung hard during the session; South Korea's KOSPI turned from an early gain of as much as 3.2% to a loss of 1.6%, and Japan's TOPIX fell 1.7%. For digital assets, the regulatory stakes are specific: a Democratic majority could delay the CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill the Trump administration has pushed, and slow the broader pro-digital-asset policy agenda. That worry reached beyond Bitcoin (BTC) to the wider altcoin market, where regulatory timing shapes listings and liquidity decisions.

A 13.7% Post-Midterm Average

History gives the bull case a numerical footing. The S&P 500 rose after all eleven midterm elections between 1982 and 2022, with an average gain one year out of 13.7%. Exchange research points the same direction for crypto: Binance Research put the average Bitcoin gain after past midterm cycles at 54%, though the sample is small, and a decisive Senate result that reshapes artificial intelligence and tax policy would break the analogy. Osaic chief market strategist Philip Blancato argued that a sweep might not drag the broader market, since strong earnings would support everything outside a constrained AI trade. Corporate results added a counterpoint on the night itself, as AMD first jumped double digits in after-hours trading on third-quarter earnings that beat estimates, then pared the advance to about 4%. Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index climbed to 20.90, keeping expected swings elevated. On-chain activity had already cooled before the vote: dormant Bitcoin wallets moved $167.56 million in October, a second straight monthly drop. For investors deciding whether to HODL through the count or trade the swings, the post-midterm record is the closest thing to a map.