Bitcoin (BTC) Loses 50-Week Moving Average After $74,968 Weekly Close

The November 8 Weekly Close

Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week that closed on November 8 at $74,968, a finish 0.7% under its 50-week moving average that snapped a run of seven straight weekly closes above the line. The average, a simple mean of the last 50 weekly closes, had been reclaimed on September 20, twelve weeks after the June low, and the first close back above it registered $81,195. The Sunday print sits 7.7% beneath that September close while holding 26% above the cycle's lowest weekly close, $59,517 on June 28. The close landed during a weekend of forced liquidations that swept the altcoin market and the largest proof-of-work asset alike, with leveraged longs, among them accounts large enough to count as crypto whales, absorbing the heaviest damage; our separate coverage put forced closures above $1 billion in 24 hours after a dip to $73,761. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, has tied post-bottom reclaims of the average to bear-market outcomes, and the chart he published counts five such reclaims since 2012, September's among them. On that record, a post-bottom reclaim has failed only twice before, and in both failures the bear-market low survived. The Bitcoin market treats this average as the line between recovery and retrenchment in every completed cycle, which is why the weekly close carries more weight than any intraday move. The Bitcoin price stood at $75,031 in the hours after the close and trades near $74,990 in early November 9 sessions, down 1.2% over 24 hours, leaving the market just under 0.7% beneath the average, now close to $75,488. The next weekly close, due November 15, becomes the first checkpoint of whether the break deepens or repairs.

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The chart he published.

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Galaxy's Five Reclaims Since 2012

Across completed cycles, reclaims of the average made after a bottom have resolved two ways: the 2015 and 2023 versions held until the prior high came back, while the 2012 and 2019 reclaims failed without costing the market its low. The 2011-12 cycle reclaimed the line in January 2012 with a close 18% above it, slipped back three weeks later and spent 20 weeks underneath; the cycle's weakest weekly close, $4.39, still stood 99% over the 2011 bear-market low, and the prior high returned in February 2013. The 2019-20 cycle started from a 5.7% cushion in May 2019 and held for 29 weeks, then dipped below five times, the worst during the March 2020 crash; its weakest close, $5,359, still held 68% over the 2018 bear-market low, and the prior high came back in December 2020. Both cycles regained the prior high within two years of the reclaim. The 2026 cushion is thinner: September's reclaim closed about 36% above the June low, against roughly 79% in 2019 and 223% in 2012, and the November 8 print sits 7.7% under that reclaim close, deeper than the 6.5% drawdown at the 2020 low. A repeat of the 2012 retest's 38.1% decline from the reclaim close would put Bitcoin (BTC) near $50,260, below the June low. Thorn cautions that cushion size has not predicted outcomes: the 2012 reclaim failed from 18% above the line, while the 2015 version held from 8%. His chart also marks two closes above the line in December 2021 and March 2022, both before that cycle's low, and his sample covers only reclaims made after a confirmed bear-market bottom. “Caveat: 5 reclaims is the whole sample, and ‘bottom in’ is only known in hindsight. For 2026 it means $59,517 holding,” he wrote. The drawdown has also drawn caution from strategists; Mike McGlone has warned that a Bitcoin break from $80,000 may signal a risk-asset top. On-chain data adds a capitulation marker: long-term holders realized $139 million in losses moving coins to exchanges, as our separate reporting shows. The next weekly close against the average, now near $75,488, is the first checkpoint, with the 200-week average at $67,746 below it. In the four completed bear markets charted, no weekly close after such a reclaim ever dropped under the cycle low, which is why $59,517 is the level that keeps the bottom call alive for anyone choosing to HODL through the drawdown.

Funding, Sentiment and the $73,986 Floor

Spot stood at $74,990 at 04:00 UTC on November 9, down 1.2% over 24 hours and a touch below where the newest reporting left it. COINOTAG's composite model for support and resistance levels scores the nearest strong floor at $73,986, a full 100 out of 100, while overhead resistance at $75,884 carries 74/100. Positioning stays calm: funding runs at 0.0067% on perpetuals and the long/short account ratio reads 3.07, with 75.4% of accounts long, while sentiment sits at 29 on the Fear & Greed Index. The reading above holds while the market stays between those two lines; a weekly close back through the 50-week average near $75,488 would void the breakdown, and a decisive loss of $73,986 would hand the argument to the bears.