Bitcoin (BTC) May Have Formed Major Low Near $59K, Strategist Says

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Bitcoin (BTC) may have formed a major low after months of technical pressure, according to Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton, who argues that long-term selling exhaustion is becoming visible. In her assessment, two long-horizon indicators tracked by the firm are now showing measurable oversold readings, a combination she views as historically associated with durable turning points rather than short-lived bounces. Stockton said traders can see exhaustion in long-term downside momentum, while momentum gauges have begun to improve even though price action remains fragile. Her framework combines support zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and the Ichimoku cloud model to map where fresh demand could emerge. The call comes after Bitcoin spent much of the week near $63,000 and below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. A broadly watched sentiment gauge also remained in the fear zone, while stalled progress on U.S. tokenization rulemaking added to cautious positioning. Stockton extended the possible major-low setup to Ethereum, but her central point is that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin (BTC) looks more constructive than recent drawdowns because the prior decline was deep and prolonged. Earlier in the week, price held above the $59,100 low while short-term charts showed an oversold bounce, an early sign of the tension between weak near-term structure and improving longer-horizon signals.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao re-entered the scarcity debate on Aug. 15, arguing that the market underestimates how little Bitcoin remains actively available. In a public post, he described the asset as deflationary and said the effective tradable supply may be lower than commonly assumed. Zhao estimated that more than 20.07 million BTC had already been mined by August 2026, leaving roughly 4.4% of the 21 million maximum supply still to be issued. The significance of that calculation is not the remaining issuance alone, but the gap between coins created and coins that can realistically move. Zhao suggested that 10% to 20% of mined supply may be lost, locked, or permanently inaccessible because of missing private keys, abandoned wallets, or other recovery failures. If even the lower end of that range is accurate, the liquid float available for buyers, sellers, and custodians could be materially smaller than headline supply figures imply. Such scarcity claims are difficult to verify precisely, since dormant wallets do not always reveal whether keys have been destroyed or merely unused. That argument gains attention as the next halving approaches, because each halving cuts new block rewards and slows the addition of fresh coins. For traders, the practical question is whether shrinking available supply would amplify demand shocks, especially if sentiment reverses from the current cautious tone.

The oversold thesis is not unanimous, and the distinction between stretched indicators and a confirmed bottom remains central to the current debate. Technical analysis circulating among market desks notes that Bitcoin has entered a long-term oversold zone, but several strategists caution that such a condition only shows price has moved far below historical momentum norms; it does not identify the exact timing or direction of a reversal. Stockton herself was quoted as saying that Bitcoin may already be oversold, yet there is still no clear buy signal. That separation matters because accumulated downside fatigue does not automatically create durable demand. The debate also extends to Ethereum and the broader altcoin complex, where momentum slowdowns and divergence patterns are being watched for possible major lows. Other research views remain more defensive: 10x Research has floated a scenario in which Bitcoin could seek a bottom near $55,000 after further weakness, while Morningstar has said it is too early to know whether the cycle low is already in, pointing to potential volatility through summer and early autumn. In this setting, sentiment readings are being treated carefully, especially after different versions of the same discussion cited Fear and Greed values of 29 and 34. The market is therefore waiting for trend confirmation, not just an all-time-high memory or a single oversold flash.

COINOTAG's analysis ties these threads to one question: whether Bitcoin's improving long-term technicals can be confirmed by actual demand before scarcity arguments become self-fulfilling. The most load-bearing primary record is the protocol's fixed supply schedule, which caps total issuance at 21 million coins. Zhao's public post builds on that record by estimating 20.07 million coins mined and 10% to 20% potentially unrecoverable. That supports a tighter-float narrative, but it does not replace price confirmation. With Stockton flagging oversold exhaustion and other desks warning about $55,000 risk, the market is at an inflection point where conviction must be proven by sustained trend reversal, not narrative alone.