Bitcoin (BTC) May Have Bottomed Before November 3 Midterms, Max Crypto Says

If the cycle call gaining traction on X this Monday is right, the post-election sell-off traders have penciled in for November never arrives. Digital-asset analyst Max Crypto argued in an October 26 post that Bitcoin (BTC) may have already passed the low of its market cycle, ahead of the United States midterm elections scheduled for November 3, a date now dominating Bitcoin across the market. A cycle low, in the sense he uses it, is the trough from which the next sustained advance builds, not just a dip on a daily chart. The argument runs against a pattern that has shaped expectations around the Bitcoin price for more than a decade: in past cycles, steep drawdowns followed the midterms, and that history has fed bearish FUD in every election season since. His monthly chart marks a decline of roughly 60% in 2014, close to 50% in 2018 and about 25% in 2022. He is deliberate about what those figures do and do not measure. Each covers a selected stretch of the monthly chart rather than a fixed post-election return, and he presents them as evidence that drawdowns and election calendars happened to line up, not that voting days moved prices.

“Bitcoin (BTC) has always crashed after midterms, but there is a fact most investors are missing,” he wrote, before drawing the distinction that carries his whole case: the post-election declines were correlation, not causation. In his reading, bear markets were already underway when the election dates arrived, and the overlap between the two schedules created the illusion that ballots pulled the market down. That distinction matters for anyone positioned right now. If the historical timing was coincidence, no rule forces a decline to follow this year's vote, and the case for a bottom rests on where the cycle actually stands rather than on the calendar. The mechanism behind the claim is deliberately unromantic: the analyst's argument is that the low has already been set, so the market does not need an election-driven flush to complete its drawdown phase. On that reading, the 2014, 2018 and 2022 patterns describe markets that were still falling into their election dates, while this one would enter the vote from a position that has already absorbed its decline. The practical edge of the warning is aimed at traders positioned for a repeat. “There is a good chance Bitcoin (BTC) puts in its bottom before this year's midterms,” he wrote, adding that investors who keep waiting for a crash could miss their entry altogether. He does not overclaim what the chart can prove, though. Whether the low is truly behind the market is, as he frames it, unconfirmed, and whether past post-midterm declines repeat this year depends on conditions no election chart can settle: United States monetary policy and the liquidity environment that policy creates.

That is where the reading turns difficult. $84.6 million net outflow readings in exchange-flow data over a recent 24-hour window show coins kept leaving trading venues while the election debate ran, and long-horizon frameworks such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart treat the present stretch as one phase inside a multi-year arc rather than a single-election event. For holders inclined to sit through the uncertainty instead of trading it, the debate lands closer to the question behind HODL than to a timing call. Nothing in the post requires the market to crash, and nothing in it guarantees the bottom holds. His chart says nothing about the next month; it says only that the habit of reading November as a danger zone rests on weaker footing than most traders assume. Our reading is that the claim stays unfalsifiable until price confirms it, and the sturdiest part of the argument is also the part that survives either outcome. The 60%, 50% and 25% figures were never post-election returns, only selected monthly-chart ranges, so they cannot serve as a scheduled warning for this November either. What decides the question is the pair of forces the analyst named himself: monetary policy and liquidity. Election-linked uncertainty tends to surface first in crypto options, where implied volatility absorbs event risk before the spot market does, and that market, not the calendar, is where a real cycle bottom usually announces itself. Our Bitcoin technical analysis desk treats the levels it tracks as subordinate to that pricing: watch how event risk is repriced into November 3, not the election date on the wall calendar.