PlanB Flags Bitcoin (BTC) MVRV Momentum Flip at +0.07 After 10 Bearish Months

PlanB Flags MVRV Momentum Flip

The MVRV momentum oscillator tracking Bitcoin (BTC) turned green on October 13, closing a bearish stretch of roughly 10 months that began in late 2025. The chart, published by PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, comes from the analytics platform Block Horizon and follows momentum in the ratio between market value and realized value; it printed +0.07 at the flip. PlanB still asked whether the signal can be read that simply, and price action gives the doubt some footing. The red run had held through late 2025 and all of this year's drawdown before the switch. The Bitcoin (BTC) price sits near $81,679, about 1.7% lower across 24 hours and under the $83,094 reference drawn on his chart, so the reading currently leads rather than confirms the tape. MVRV compares what the market pays for all coins with what holders collectively paid, so negative readings mark aggregate losses and positive ones mark aggregate profit. Green readings have historically coincided with a Bull Market, red with bear phases, and the gauge's swings tracked past cycles closely enough to earn a large following. A green print puts the aggregate position back in profit, the condition that preceded sustained advances in earlier cycles. The 2026 bear phase bottomed near -0.4, shallower than the roughly -0.55 troughs of 2018 and 2022, a detail some read as a structurally softer downturn. Whether spot demand validates the print is the open question, and the flip now sits at the center of Bitcoin market debate this week.

Weekly MACD Crosses Zero After 44 Weeks

A second widely followed gauge made the same turn this week. Analyst Quinten Francois posted Bitcoin's weekly MACD, a momentum measure built from the gap between fast and slow moving averages, crossing above zero after 44 consecutive negative weeks. The indicator defines trend strength by that spread, so a zero-cross marks a regime change rather than a single-day wiggle. The same cross appeared in 2019 and 2023 with sharply different outcomes. In 2023 it preceded a rally that carried the coin from about $25,000 to more than $70,000 inside a year. In 2019 it marked a brief climb to around $13,800 before a slide below $4,000 by March 2020. Last month also saw a 50-week moving average signal reappear after 45 weeks away.

Cycle timing adds a twist. Eric Crown, a market analyst, argues the four-year calendar itself has failed: either Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed in July, ahead of schedule, or it bottoms after today, late on that schedule, and “either way, it’s broken.” Each earlier cycle printed its low about a year after its peak, which pointed toward an autumn 2026 bottom, yet BTC dropped to $57,800 on July 1, roughly three months ahead of it. Benjamin Cowen had projected an October bottom before conceding in September that his bearish call failed. Sentiment complicates the read. CryptoQuant's Analyst Consensus Index, aggregating votes from 164 analysts, stood at -18.3 on July 2 and reached +49.2 by October 13, with the bullish share climbing from 37% to 84% over the same span. Price did not keep pace: the peak near $87,000 came in late September, and the coin trades about 6% under it. Analyst optimism has outrun spot performance all quarter, and that gap is the tension traders carry into the next sessions.

@KrownCryptoCave · X post

Argues the four-year calendar itself has failed.

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Crowded Consensus, First Test

Alignment is the read from this week: on-chain MVRV momentum, the weekly MACD and crowd sentiment all turned positive within days of one another for the first time in this cycle. Two 10-month droughts ending inside the same week is either coincidence or confirmation, and the data so far leans toward the latter on breadth, not price. Alignment is one thing, crowding another, and 84% bullish against a price 6% under the late-September peak is a consensus that has already paid for entry. The 2019 sequence, not the 2023 one, is the risk case, because it shows a zero-cross surviving only to fail into distribution. The calendar question stays open too: the four-year rhythm tied to the Bitcoin Halving, once settled doctrine in Bitcoin Maximalism circles, is openly contested now that July's $57,800 low arrived early. Our Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks the near-term levels, the latest derivatives liquidation wave showed how fast a crowded book unwinds, and analysts split over breakout odds in our report on the hold near $82K.