Bitcoin (BTC) October Slide Reaches 4.2% Ahead of Oct 31 Close

Bitcoin (BTC) price sits at $80,587, between the $80,051 close it printed on Oct 25 and the $83,567 level it carried on Sept 30, and the gap between those two points holds the whole of the month’s decline so far. Measured across that window, the asset is down 4.2% for October to date, with the 24-hour change near flat at -0.09%. On-chain analysis published on Monday, Oct 27, frames the slide on the Sept 30 to Oct 25 comparison, a window that leaves the last three sessions out. The Oct 28 close sits 0.99% above the Oct 25 close. The two percentages cover different windows: 4.2% runs from Sept 30 through Oct 25, 0.99% from Oct 25 through Oct 28, so neither alone settles the month. The final October return is fixed once the Oct 31 close is recorded. To turn positive, the month would need a finish back above the $83,567 base set on Sept 30, more than 3% above the current quote. October has been an uneven month this decade. The asset rose every October from 2020 through 2024, with annual gains running from 5.5% to 40.0%. 2025 ended that run with a 3.8% decline, the first negative October after five straight up-months. Across 2020 through 2025, the average October return came to 18.1%, a figure that excludes 2026. The analysis behind the 4.2% reading compared daily closes on the two reference dates rather than a running total, so it updates only when a new close prints. For anyone tracking the Bitcoin market through quarter-end, the arithmetic is tight: three sessions decide whether 2026 prints a second straight negative October or closes the gap.

Demand gauges ran against the market through most of October. A 30-day cumulative apparent-demand reading, which compares how quickly new holders absorb coins against issuance from the proof-of-work network, a schedule the most recent Bitcoin halving cut in half, stood at -76,000 Bitcoin (BTC) as of Oct 25. Daily readings ran negative every session from Oct 14 through Oct 25. The figure does not mean 76,000 coins changed hands; it states only that new holders absorbed supply more slowly than the network issued it across the window. A gauge of United States venue demand was negative on every day from Oct 1 through Oct 25. Its Oct 24 reading of -0.146 was the lowest since June 30. A negative premium means coins price slightly cheaper on the US venue than elsewhere, a stance that has held for the whole month to date. The gauge tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other trading venues, and it serves as a reference for US buying interest rather than a direct tally of US investor volume. Buy-side activity did return at the lows. Glassnode’s report of Oct 21 states that after the market tested $80,000 on Oct 15, resting buy orders were rebuilt through Oct 20, a pattern typical of holders who HODL through drawdowns rather than sell into them. The US spot Bitcoin ETF complex recorded net inflows on Oct 19, on top of an earlier stretch that drew $286 million across two days; Glassnode noted at the time that trading volume sat below typical levels for the year. October’s weakness has also included a Monday selloff that forced $1.3 billion in liquidations. ETF flows, apparent demand and the venue premium measure different windows on different baselines, so no single gauge settles the month. The October return is confirmed after the Oct 31 close.

The levels in our Bitcoin technical analysis scoring place the market between two 84/100 lines: support at $80,161 and resistance at $81,419. Positioning stays mild: the funding rate on perpetuals reads 0.0057%, and momentum shows RSI at 43.94 with a bearish MACD inside a downtrend. The reading that carries the session is distance: the quote is $426 above the lower line and $832 beneath the upper one, and the nearest edge is the one below. A break of either line moves the tape to the next scored level on that side.