Bitbank Analyst Sees Bitcoin (BTC) Holding the $80,000–$85,000 Range Into FOMC

The $85,000 Stall and the $81,000 Floor

Bitcoin (BTC) price action spent the week tracing the structure analysts had mapped in advance: a dollar band from $80,000 to $85,000 that absorbed both the midweek rally and the later slide without giving way on either edge. The reading comes from bitbank analyst Tomoya Hasegawa's weekly chart report on the yen pair, released on Sunday. In yen terms the week opened near the 13 million yen line with little directional conviction; as doubts about the profitability of large-scale AI investment built, the pair drifted lower. Progress hopes in US-Iran negotiations, which sent crude oil sharply lower on October 20, gave the market room to recover, and Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the 13.2 million yen area. Firm conditions followed. Midweek, as US technology stocks rebounded and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency published its final rules for the GENIUS Act, Washington's framework for payment stablecoins, dollar-pegged tokens distinct from any Central Bank Digital Currency, prices climbed to the vicinity of 13.4 million yen, one step short of $85,000. That was the turning point. Dollar pricing tells the same story: the stall came just beneath the $85,000 mark. Profit-taking then set in and provoked forced selling among leveraged longs; during Tokyo hours on October 22 the pair dropped to the 13.1 million yen region. Concerns over the returns on AI spending and the durability of semiconductor demand resurfaced late in the week, and selling spread through AI and chip equities; BTC softened alongside them and fell below the 13 million yen line. In US hours the same day, a steep Nasdaq decline dragged it further, to around 12.75 million yen, which corresponds to roughly $81,000 in dollar terms, and there the decline stopped. Live market data places spot near $80,904, inside the same frame that has held the wider Bitcoin market all week.

FOMC Week and the $80,000 Floor

The analyst's prior outlook had sketched precisely this outcome: with few fresh catalysts on the calendar, a $80,000 to $85,000 band underpinned by options positioning around the lower bound, in which direction would stay unresolved. The week obliged; Bitcoin (BTC) rose to just below $85,000 at midweek and, on the subsequent drop, never took out $80,000, leaving the projected range intact. The floor lives in the options market. Even after this week's slide, the supply-demand structure around $80,000 shows no meaningful change, and absent a fresh bearish catalyst, solid support is expected at that level, an expectation that leans on holders inclined to HODL through the range rather than trade it. Above, the same positioning helped cap the approach to $85,000. The coming week's dominant event is the Federal Open Market Committee. Fed funds futures put the odds of a hold at the October meeting near 90 percent, and better than 70 percent odds of a further hike are already priced for December, so the base case reads: hold now, one last increase of the year in December. What matters more than the decision itself, on this reading, is how Chair Walsh's press conference lays out the path afterward; even a surprise October hike could be taken as a December move pulled forward, clearing the calendar beyond. Data follows the meeting: the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP, the quarterly PCE price index and September's monthly PCE. CPI and PPI readings have been accelerating, with the 3.7 percent September CPI keeping the inflation-hedge debate alive, so confirmation at the quarterly level would reinforce the December case; but with December largely priced, strong prints have little room to lift the odds further, while weak ones have comparatively wide room to cut them, which favors an upward reaction in Bitcoin (BTC). One caveat carries over: the renewed wariness toward AI and semiconductor stocks, because BTC's correlation with that sector has strengthened and continued sector softness would slow any recovery.

Our composite scoring draws the same map with harder edges: resistance at $82,401 scored 96/100 and support at $80,117 scored 85, the trend reads sideways, perpetual funding runs at 0.0037 percent and accounts skew 2.31 to 1 long; overhead, the market's ETF cost basis near $81,500, the level our earlier Glassnode cost-basis read examined, adds a second reference above spot near $80,904, and the Bitcoin technical analysis panel carries the full scores. What the week did not change matters more: the band held, the $80,000 zone absorbed a liquidation flush without breaking, a hold that the Blockstream CMO's bullish $81,000 read had already framed as constructive, so unless the FOMC or the data rewrites the rate path, the range, not a breakout, stays the working condition.