Bitcoin (BTC) Reclaims $80,000 Hours Before Fed Rate Decision

Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed back above $80,000 on Tuesday, hours before the Federal Reserve (Fed) hands down its rate decision, after a week in which the liquidity that typically feeds the broader Bitcoin (BTC) market thinned across the board. On-chain data covering October 19 to 25 shows the total stablecoin market cap contracted by $2.19 billion, a gauge of how much purchasing power sits ready to rotate into digital assets. USDT and USDC balances on Ethereum fell a combined $1.17 billion over seven days. Tron shed $495 million, the second-largest outflow among the top 15 chains, while Circle's Arc chain recorded the largest increase at $294 million. Trading cooled alongside the supply shrink. Decentralized exchange spot volume dropped 12.21% week over week to $44.09 billion, and perpetual futures volume, the contracts without expiry that carry most speculative flow, slid 8.59% to $142.54 billion. Hyperliquid, the largest perpetuals venue in on-chain rankings, saw volume ease 8.50% to $51.68 billion, weekly revenue fall 10.17% and the chain's USDT and USDC balances shrink by $184 million. The timing carries weight. Two rate decisions land this week: the Fed on Wednesday, October 28, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday, October 30. Markets expect both banks to freeze rates, with a December increase partly reflected in pricing already. Futures-implied odds put the probability of the Fed holding at 3.75% to 4% at 89.5%, while pricing for the December 9 meeting shows an 82.3% chance of a hike. That December bet has shifted over the month: the implied probability of no change has climbed from 7.3% to 17.7%. At last check, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $80,778, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours, after dipping below the $80,000 mark earlier in the session.

Daiwa Sees a December Opening

The September episode offers the closest precedent. When the Fed raised rates that month, Bitcoin moved from roughly $75,350 to $76,100 within minutes, a reminder that a decision already priced into the market can pass without turbulence. The reverse also holds: a firm signal confirming the December hike would land on a market with less room left for surprises. Both sessions therefore come down to the people speaking. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh fields questions at his Wednesday press conference, and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks two days later. The BOJ is widely expected to hold at 1.25% after its September increase, and more than 80% of economists in survey data point to December for the next move. Daiwa Securities adds a concrete trigger: a formal declaration that underlying inflation has reached the 2% target would open the door to a December hike, which is the hint traders will search for in Ueda's wording. Traders will also weigh the tone: a hold paired with hawkish guidance would leave the 82.3% December pricing intact, while a softer presser could pull those odds back. Demand from corporate balance sheets did not pause while trading cooled. Whale-class treasuries kept adding: Strive bought 6,182 Bitcoin (BTC) during the week, lifting its holdings to 43,000 BTC, a build-out along the lines of a corporate strategic Bitcoin reserve. BitMine, meanwhile, added 10,452 ETH worth $24.13 million to its Ethereum treasury, a smaller purchase that points the same way. Aggregate positioning stays measured: Bitcoin holds a 68.1% share of our tracked universe, and that universe is valued at $2.38 trillion.

The number to carry into Wednesday and Friday is the stablecoin float. Stablecoin supply works as a rough proxy for purchasing power parked at the edge of the crypto market, so a $2.19 billion weekly drop means both statements land on a thinner base than a month ago, with sentiment already middling: the Fear & Greed Index reads 48 out of 100, neutral, with no greed to unwind. Desk commentary had framed the reclaim zone before Tuesday's move: Wintermute's $80,000 support call followed a third straight weekly drop. If Warsh and Ueda both sound hawkish, the lighter volumes and smaller float get tested first; if the holds pass quietly, as September's hike did, the December 9 meeting becomes the next checkpoint.