Bitcoin (BTC) Steadies Near $77,900 After 8.7% 30-Day Drop

Election, Jobs and Earnings Crowd Four Days

Bitcoin (BTC) price is holding near $77,900 on Sunday, up 0.4% over the past 24 hours, after a 30-day stretch that erased roughly 8.7% of its value and pushed it below $80,000. Market data put its capitalization near $1.56 trillion. That leaves the coin boxed in by its own recent drawdown and by a calendar that now crowds three major risk events into four days. The United States votes in its midterm election on November 3, filling all 435 seats of the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate, with the result set to shape fiscal policy, financial oversight and the pace of crypto legislation for the next two years. Two earnings reports follow within hours of the vote: AI software firm Palantir (PLTR) reports third-quarter results after the close on November 2, and chipmaker AMD follows after the close on November 3, with Qualcomm and AppLovin also scheduled this week. The October nonfarm payrolls report then lands on November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar. The print carries extra weight because the Federal Reserve (Fed) held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October 28 meeting, a 10-to-2 vote in which two officials argued for a quarter-point increase, and the next decision is not due until December 9. Until then, this jobs report is the clearest read the market gets on the rate path, and all three events pull on the same thread: how much risk investors will carry into year-end.

The payrolls print carries the clearest rate signal. Hiring and wage growth well above forecasts would raise the odds the Fed keeps policy tight, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields and pressing on risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). A sharp cooldown works the other way, though data weak enough to stir recession fears would not guarantee a rebound. The election, by contrast, does not set interest rates directly, and no outcome reliably lifts or sinks the coin either way. What it does decide is the legislative environment: how Congress handles stablecoin rules, trading-platform oversight and prediction markets, since different compositions of the chamber change how bills move and how agencies are supervised. Some districts may need days to finish counting, and a delayed call on control of either house would stretch that uncertainty deeper into the month. Earnings run through a separate channel. Traders will read Palantir's AI software demand and enterprise contract growth, and AMD's data-center and AI accelerator numbers, as a proxy for the technology spending that has carried equity markets this year. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq do not move in lockstep, so a strong results season is no promise of crypto gains. On the chart, $77,000 has become the short-term area to defend. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn put the 50-week moving average at about $76,540 in his October report and treats a weekly close below that line, sustained for roughly a month, as his marker for judging whether the bear market has ended. The average itself drifts with time, so Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis this week starts from that pair of levels, with neither assured as support. Flows complicate the picture further: US spot ETF products posted $515.9 million in October net outflows, and exchange selling pressure plus whale positioning can amplify whatever the calendar triggers.

Fear Index at 34 Before the Data

The wider aggregates frame where the market stands before any of it lands. The Fear & Greed Index reads 34 out of 100, in fear territory, and Bitcoin's share of the COINOTAG-tracked market stands at 68.1% of a $2.30 trillion universe, a market already cautious and concentrated in its largest asset. That reading suggests much of the 30-day decline is already priced, though it says nothing about which way this week's headlines cut, and the three events can offset each other. Supply offers one quiet counterweight: holdings across crypto mining operations grew, with miners adding 1,797 BTC in the biggest weekly build in six weeks. What Bitcoin's position now hangs on is whether the vote, the payrolls print and the earnings run push funds out, or whether holders choose to HODL through the noise and turn $77,000 into a floor.