Bitcoin (BTC) Win Rate vs S&P 500 Hits 50% Over 90 Sessions

Bitcoin Ties the S&P 500 Across 90 Sessions

Bitcoin (BTC) won half of the past 90 US trading sessions against the S&P 500, closing out a stretch in which it lost more of those sessions than it won. The Bitcoin (BTC) price stands near $79,750 on Thursday, about 2% higher over 24 hours, as the milestone in relative performance settles into the tape. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode's regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, reports that the rolling 90-session win rate reached an even 50/50 split through Wednesday, the first time the reading has touched that threshold since March 2025. For most of the past year, the same dataset shows, the win rate sat below 50% and the coin surrendered more sessions to the index than it reclaimed. Glassnode's authors treat the return to an even split as the end of a long period of underperformance and add a condition: only if the win rate climbs above 50% and holds there would the data show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities. A second measure moved the same way. Average per-session returns for Bitcoin (BTC) now run slightly higher than the S&P 500's, so the improvement shows up in how much the coin gains when it wins, not only in how often. COINOTAG flow data shows a $393.81 million net inflow across the tracked market over 24 hours, led by Bitcoin, a sign the relative-strength story is reaching positioning as well as headlines. The comparison matters beyond sentiment. Traders who take index-linked exposure through stock perpetuals track the same benchmark the win-rate study measures, and for broader Bitcoin market participants the split now acts as a running scoreboard against Wall Street. Glassnode's message is that the scoreboard has reset, and the next print decides whether it stays reset.

Midterm History and a Tightening Correlation

Capriole Investments supplies the calendar angle to the same equity comparison. The firm's historical dataset covers the 26 midterm elections held since 1922, with this year's vote left out of the sample, and finds seven in which Democrats won both the House and the Senate while a Republican occupied the White House. In those seven instances, the S&P 500 added an average of 10.7% over the following three months. The average reached 17.5% at the six-month mark and stood at 15.5% a year out. Charles Edwards, who founded Capriole Investments, commented on the data in a post on X and called it the best possible election outcome for markets. His framing ties the just-completed midterms to a pattern spanning a full century of very different rate regimes, a reach that limits how mechanically it maps onto current conditions. Correlation work fills in the recent mechanics. The rolling 20-day correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 sits at 0.63, a level the pair reached after both assets rallied from August onward, a stretch that coincided with the US Treasury expanding its debt buybacks. A correlation of that size means daily moves in the two assets have mostly pointed the same way for the past two months, a sharp change from the weaker, near-zero stretches earlier in the cycle. It also means the midterm averages, if they play out, would tend to reach crypto through the same equity channel rather than through a Bitcoin-specific catalyst. For portfolios, the tight coupling works in both directions: it has let crypto allocations ride the equity bid since August, and it leaves them exposed if equities stall. The midterm record, read on Capriole's own numbers, leans supportive for the index Bitcoin has tracked this closely since late summer.

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Resistance defines what the milestone still has to clear. COINOTAG's composite scoring rates $82,220 as the strongest overhead level, scored 98/100, with $77,820 the firmest support below the market at 95/100. Momentum is unresolved: the RSI reads 49.40, the MACD signal is bearish and the trend classification remains a downtrend, a label the recent rebound that forced $152 million in short liquidations has not flipped. Positioning stays balanced. Funding on margin trading positions is a near-flat 0.0071%, while the long/short account ratio of 1.54, the kind of skew copy trading dashboards tend to mirror, leans long without crowding. Sentiment sits at a neutral 50/100, with neither fear nor FOMO in control; the full level set is in our Bitcoin technical analysis.