Bitcoin CLARITY Act Odds Cut to 10% by Galaxy on Ethics Deadlock

Crypto News

Citing unresolved ethics rules for public officials and community-bank pressure on stablecoin yield, Galaxy Research has reduced the probability that the CLARITY Act will become law this year to 10% from 75%, according to Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of research. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, designated H.R. 3633, is the first attempt by Congress to create a unified U.S. framework for digital assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and any major altcoin. The measure would draw a jurisdictional line between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, assigning oversight according to whether an asset is treated as a security or a commodity. It advanced through the House in July 2025 and later cleared the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote in May 2026, but Thorn said subsequent political fights have erased that momentum. That earlier estimate had followed the committee’s bipartisan approval, when the bill appeared positioned for floor consideration. His explanation centers on three obstacles: an unresolved conflict-of-interest regime covering officials’ crypto holdings, opposition from regional banks to stablecoin compensation language, and a compressed Senate calendar. A bipartisan group of senators sent an ethics proposal to the White House on July 30, yet no agreement has been disclosed. Rural Republican lawmakers, aligned with banking concerns, have resisted stablecoin-yield provisions, a debate that touches products sometimes discussed alongside algorithmic stablecoins. Galaxy’s revised estimate implies that, absent immediate procedural action when the Senate returns on September 14, the industry may operate under regulatory uncertainty into 2027. Thorn emphasized that agency-level measures are less durable than legislation and can be reversed by a future administration. With Republicans holding 53 seats, supporters need at least seven additional votes to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold. For Bitcoin, the largest digital asset by market value, the delay keeps the central U.S. market-structure question unresolved while legislative sponsors attempt to rebuild the coalition needed to advance the bill.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s canceled August 14 open meeting has removed the near-term catalyst for a crypto issuance proposal that Galaxy Research says overlaps with the CLARITY Act, according to Thorn. Commissioners had been scheduled to consider whether to release a customized issuance regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets for public comment, rather than vote on a final rule. The agency’s August 13 notice, recorded by the agency’s secretary, disclosed no reason for the cancellation and set no alternative date, leaving the proposal in the same unresolved position as the legislation. The notice contains no statement of reasons and no revised timetable, so the agency’s next procedural move is not currently known. Thorn said the SEC initiative is tied to Title I of the CLARITY Act, meaning that a delay in one track can complicate the other. For Bitcoin (BTC) and each altcoin issuer that might rely on a clearer offering path, the absence of a meeting date preserves uncertainty about how federal securities rules would apply to digital-asset issuance. The cancellation also arrives while the Senate prepares for a September 15 procedural step on the bill, creating two parallel stalls instead of one clear route to legal clarity. Neither the SEC notice nor the Senate schedule records a final decision, and neither document currently binds market participants. The distance between the stated goal of investor protection and the practical effect of inaction is visible in the calendar: without a rescheduled meeting, the agency cannot advance a proposal, and without cloture, the Senate cannot force floor consideration. The delay is a procedural matter, not evidence of a market move toward an all-time high. Galaxy’s view, as stated by Thorn, is that the market should not treat either pending track as settled; both remain subject to political negotiation and procedural constraints.

COINOTAG’s analysis ties both developments to a single theme: the U.S. crypto framework is still a proposal, not a final rule. The bill text of H.R. 3633 states that it would establish a digital-asset market-structure regime and allocate authority between the SEC and CFTC, but it carries no effective date and binds no issuer, exchange, or holder unless enacted. The Senate cloture motion filed by Majority Leader John Thune is likewise procedural, requiring 60 votes before floor consideration. Galaxy’s Thorn framed the situation as “more about politics than policy,” and the official record preserved so far supports that distinction: neither Congress nor the SEC has produced a binding rule.