Bitcoin Held Near $64,000 as US Inflation Cooled

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) held near $64,000 after July US inflation cooled, with the asset rising only about 0.5% to $63,833 by Aug. 13. Official data released Aug. 12 showed headline consumer prices rose 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June, while core inflation excluding food and energy eased to 2.5% from 2.6%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased 0.1%, and core CPI rose 0.2%, leaving traders without a strong disinflation surprise. The immediate macro effect was a reduction in worries that the Federal Reserve would need another rate increase in September, a condition that usually supports risk assets. Yet the price response stayed muted because the report largely matched expectations and did not remove all policy uncertainty. Oil-market risk and the possibility of renewed inflation pressure later in the year remained part of the backdrop. A separate producer-price reading on Aug. 13 also came in softer than anticipated, reinforcing the view that price pressure was easing, but not enough to trigger aggressive crypto buying. Equities found firmer support from the same numbers, while crypto participants waited for clearer exchange-traded-fund flows or corporate buying. For BTC, the session showed that favorable macro data alone does not create a fresh bid when positioning is already cautious.

Asset manager VanEck argued in its third-quarter outlook published Aug. 13 that the current bear market in BTC is approaching its final stage. The firm framed the drop from roughly $125,000 near the prior peak, a reference point traders often compare with the asset's all-time-high marker, to the low $60,000 zone as a normal correction tied to the four-year halving cycle, rather than a breakdown in market structure. It pointed to the April 2024 halving, when mining rewards fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, as the supply mechanism that has historically shaped expansion and contraction phases. VanEck's internal GEO framework, which tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage and on-chain activity, showed two components still neutral while ecosystem leverage moved into what it called a constructive zone. That combination led the firm to suggest investors may be able to start scaling into positions gradually. It also listed its spot-price-linked HODL exchange-traded fund and NODE fund focused on on-chain economy companies as possible vehicles. Supporting the bottoming thesis, on-chain cycle data flagged a second early bullish signal on Aug. 12, but the same type of signal in May appeared while BTC was near $81,700 and was followed by a roughly 30% slide to $57,800 in June, so the indicator is not being treated as confirmation.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan offered a market-structure reading of the same price action, saying BTC's failure to fall on a series of negative developments points to seller exhaustion. He highlighted three recent headwinds: sharp moves in US equities, a large sale by Strategy, and the estimated probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year falling from 40% to 14%. Even so, BTC kept a narrow range around $64,000. Hogan described late-stage weakness as a phase where bad news no longer produces aggressive selling, adding that suppressed volatility may eventually break higher. He cautioned that this is not a guaranteed bottom and noted that a crowded expectation of an October bottom is itself a risk. On allocation, Hogan called 5% a magic portfolio weight, arguing that smaller exposures can improve returns without materially increasing volatility, and he estimated a neutral global allocation at about 2%. He also pointed to institutional behavior: conversations with large wealth platforms and early-August fund flows into US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, including a weekly inflow of ¥158 billion, suggest some buyers are looking beyond short-term price swings. Regulatory dates still matter, with the CLARITY Act vote now expected Sept. 15 and an SEC rulemaking vote on token issuance scheduled Aug. 14.

COINOTAG's read ties these threads together: the market is moving from macro shock to positioning repair. The official July inflation print is the primary anchor, showing headline CPI at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.5%, with producer prices flat month over month. That reduces the immediate case for tighter policy but does not deliver a full risk-on impulse. VanEck's cycle work and the second on-chain early bull signal add evidence that downside momentum is thinning, while Hogan's seller-exhaustion argument explains why negative headlines are being absorbed. For Bitcoin, the next confirmation will come from whether improving macro data, cycle indicators and ETF demand converge rather than merely appear at the same time.