Bitcoin Holds Near $64K Despite Semiconductor Rout

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) traded close to $64,000 on July 29 after a roughly 1% advance, even as a semiconductor-driven selloff pressured Asian equities and US index futures. The move placed Bitcoin against a two-day slide in South Korea's benchmark index, where SK Hynix fell about 17% despite a 557% profit increase and Samsung Electronics dropped 12% ahead of earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge slipped 2% to its lowest level since mid-April, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1% as technology investors reassessed crowded AI trades. Major tokens were largely stable, with Ethereum up 1% near $1,899 and XRP adding 2% to $1.07, suggesting that crypto liquidity was not simply following equities lower. That divergence has appeared twice over the past five sessions. A US rate decision due later in the session added caution, with swaps implying only a small chance of tightening and investors waiting for core PCE and GDP data. The key question is whether Bitcoin can keep decoupling from chip stocks, given that listed miners remain tied to AI data-center demand and ASIC mining economics.

Derivatives positioning showed that leveraged traders were not fully de-risking before the Federal Reserve decision. During Tuesday's European hours, BTC slipped below $63,650 to a 10-day low as some accounts reduced exposure, but the funding rate had earlier risen to 0.0086%, its highest since July 17. A positive funding reading means long holders pay shorts, so the move indicated continued demand to maintain bullish exposure. Futures data also showed about $30.1 million of long positions liquidated over 24 hours, roughly 60% of total crypto liquidations, yet the episode did not trigger a broad deleveraging cascade. Total derivatives volume fell 13.2% to $49.26 billion, while the long-short ratio stood near 1.03, leaving longs only slightly ahead. Some intraday weakness also coincided with rotation into stronger Ethereum, which held above $1,900 and offered a nearer catalyst for momentum traders. Prediction markets reflected a guarded but constructive setup, assigning about a 47% chance that BTC would be above $64,000 by July 31 noon ET and an 83% chance it would remain above $62,000. The pattern suggests the pullback was driven more by position reshuffling than by aggressive new shorting.

US legislative timing added another constraint after the Clarity Act, a market-structure bill that would shape digital-asset oversight, lost momentum in the Senate. Republicans need 60 votes to advance the measure, and Senate Republican leader John Thune has prioritized a Russia-Iran sanctions bill with clearer support, making a vote before the August 7 recess unlikely. The delay followed earlier optimism that ethics provisions could draw bipartisan backing, but negotiations have also become entangled with efforts to fill a vacant CFTC commissioner seat. Prediction-market odds for passage this year slipped to around 30%, though a September path remains possible. Geopolitics also stayed disruptive, after an Iran strike on a US base in Jordan revived oil-market risk and capped rebounds. For BTC, the stakes are less immediate than macro policy, yet regulatory clarity has become one of the narrative supports keeping dips from turning into a deeper bear market. Price action shows the market still has a floor: after failing near $67,000, BTC found buyers around $62,000, a roughly 50% retracement of the move from $57,000 to $66,000, leaving traders positioned for a FOMC-driven breakout rather than a structural breakdown below its all-time high.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames Bitcoin as rangebound as of the latest snapshot, with spot at $64,021 and the nearest resistance at $64,466 rated 68/100 on R1 and SMA 20 confluence. Immediate support at $63,649 scores 61/100 from SMA 50 and pivot-point alignment, while a deeper $61,468 shelf scores 59/100. Derivatives positioning is mildly bullish but stretched: funding is positive at 0.0050%, open interest totals $12.44 billion, and the long-short ratio stands at 1.78, meaning 64% of accounts are long. A Fear and Greed reading of 29 shows sentiment remains fearful, leaving room for relief if BTC reclaims $64,466 toward $65,477. A decisive break below $61,468 would invalidate the sideways-accumulation thesis.