Bitcoin Holds Near $65K Ahead of Fed Decision

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) held near $65,000 on Monday, up about 4% from Friday, even as AI-linked technology shares weakened. Nvidia slid 4.8%, but Apple, Microsoft and Google kept the Nasdaq roughly flat, leaving crypto traders focused on this week’s Federal Reserve decision and inflation data. Ethereum reached its strongest level in nearly two months, and the ETH-BTC ratio touched a three-month high, a move Tom Lee called constructive for broader risk appetite. LMAX strategist Joel Kruger said the resilience supports a marginal decoupling from traditional risk assets, while adding that Bitcoin needs a break above $67,300 to confirm a new range breakout. Bitcoin coverage remains centered on that threshold.

Market strategist Nicolai Sondergaard of Nansen argued the rebound lacks conviction and could fade if spot demand remains elusive. On-chain data shows roughly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, but derivatives open-interest data indicates Bitcoin futures exposure declined during the price recovery, suggesting reduced risk rather than fresh bullish leverage. Order-book readings also leaned net sell, reinforcing the view that the market is range-bound without a strong marginal buyer. Sondergaard’s base case is a correction toward $52,000 to $58,000 unless exchange stablecoin inflows, persistent spot-ETF buying and a halt to long-term-holder loss selling return. That framework frames the current move as positioning, not a confirmed bear market reversal.

Macro event risk is unusually dense this week, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England all set to announce policy decisions. Bitcoin traded around $65,000 after a weekend range narrower than 2%, even as crude oil stayed above $100 per barrel. CME FedWatch pricing showed a 36.3% probability of a July rate hike and an 80% chance of tightening by September, shifting attention to Kevin Warsh’s guidance on inflation and energy costs. Prediction-market odds put a BOJ hold at 98%, though an unexpected Japanese hike could revive carry-trade unwinding. The Bank of England is also expected to keep rates high, limiting near-term liquidity relief.

Derivatives positioning entering the policy week is tilted toward upside. Exchange data from Deribit shows roughly $5 billion of Bitcoin call open interest concentrated at the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes, equal to about 18% of the venue’s $28 billion total options book. The broader put-call ratio for Bitcoin options fell from 0.76 in late June to 0.52 by July 24, meaning bullish calls outweigh bearish puts by nearly two to one. That skew suggests institutional traders are preparing for a possible short squeeze if the Fed avoids a hawkish surprise. The same positioning would leave the $70,000 to $72,000 zone as the next major liquidity target.

Near-term hedges, however, show traders are not abandoning caution. Deribit order flow places protective put buying mainly around $62,000 to $63,000, with market participants treating that area as an institutional demand zone ahead of the Fed and BOJ announcements. If Warsh emphasizes sticky energy-driven inflation and signals more tightening, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could advance, triggering another round of crypto deleveraging. In that scenario, the $61,800 to $63,100 support band would likely absorb the first wave of bids. A hawkish surprise would also pressure the altcoin complex, where thinner order books tend to amplify downside moves during risk-off episodes.

The remaining catalyst stack is equally heavy, with U.S. macro releases and large-cap technology earnings converging around the Fed decision. Core personal consumption expenditure data and second-quarter GDP are due July 30, followed by results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. On July 31, roughly $13 billion to $14 billion of Bitcoin and Ether options expire, adding pin risk and potential gamma-driven swings. Traders will also monitor whether spot Bitcoin ETF flows turn consistently positive and whether long-term holders slow their distribution. Until those conditions align, the market’s structure looks like a high-stakes positioning reset rather than a confirmed trend change toward a new all-time high.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates Bitcoin’s $64,489 support at 86/100, driven by EMA 20 and SMA 20 confluence, while the $66,696 resistance scores 85/100 from R3 and Fibonacci 0.382 inputs. A secondary support at $63,295 carries 84/100 from SMA 50 and Ichimoku Kijun. Derivatives aggregate data shows perp funding at 0.0043%, open interest near $12.75 billion and a long-short account ratio of 1.69, indicating crowded but not extreme bullish positioning. With Fear and Greed at 30, sentiment remains fearful despite the uptrend signal. Our read is bullish while price holds above $64,489 and clears $65,067; a decisive break below $63,295 would invalidate that setup.