Bitcoin Longs Face Liquidation Cleanout Near $63K

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) is confronting a leveraged-long flush as price weakness pushes the largest cryptocurrency toward fresh August lows. Derivatives data from Binance show open interest had climbed to about $8.15 billion before turning lower alongside spot, producing a positive price-OI correlation of roughly 0.25, a reading analysts interpret as longs being stopped or liquidated rather than new shorts dominating. The structure suggests traders who bought dips in the low-$60,000 range are now exiting under pressure, while futures activity rather than spot demand sets the tone. Cross-crypto liquidations reached about $236 million over 24 hours, reinforcing the view that the recent breakdown is being driven by forced deleveraging. Separate on-chain commentary from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju cautioned that the conditions for a renewed Bitcoin bull phase have not yet aligned, with several cycle indicators still in bear territory. Our read is that the broader Bitcoin market is being steered by futures, not spot.

The pressure deepened after U.S. producer price inflation cooled to 4.7%, a figure that lifted equities but failed to generate a risk-on bid in crypto. Bitcoin slid below $63,000 and lost about 1.14% from midnight UTC, touching its lowest level since Aug. 3 and erasing the prior week's advance. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $192 million of combined outflows across two sessions, the first back-to-back withdrawal streak since late July, according to fund-flow data. The divergence is notable: cooler input prices can improve expectations for easier policy, yet digital-asset demand remained muted, suggesting positioning and fund flows are dominating macro headlines. Ether declined 0.73%, while parts of the altcoin complex and the wider Altcoin market held up better than the majors. Derivatives data pointed to churn rather than fresh directional conviction, with volume expanding faster than open interest and taker flow roughly balanced between longs and shorts across major venues.

A longer-horizon market signal has also turned negative, underscoring how severe the current drawdown has become. The 365-day running return-on-investment metric fell below the critical 1.0 breakeven line, with its latest reading near 0.514. Put simply, a hypothetical investor who held BTC for the past 12 months would now possess only about 51% of the position's value from a year earlier, an estimated 49% loss. Such sub-1 readings have historically appeared during the most damaging phases of the market, including 2014-2015, 2018-2019 and 2022. Importantly, the indicator describes regime more than timing: prior episodes show the ratio can remain depressed for months before a durable recovery forms. This is not, by itself, a bottom signal. It is evidence that long-duration holders are absorbing meaningful pain, and that sentiment remains consistent with a bear market rather than a confirmed cycle turn. That historical behavior argues against treating the threshold breach as an immediate contrarian buy.

The same cautious regime is visible in Bitcoin's shorter-term technical structure. Price action has been unable to hold above the near-term moving-average band around $63,400 to $63,900, leaving Bitcoin trading near $62,900 after a failed attempt to break out of its recent consolidation. Overhead supply remains heavy: the 100-day moving average sits near $66,500, while the 200-day average is close to $71,800, both well above current levels. Momentum indicators add to the defensive picture. The daily relative strength index has eased to about 42.5, below its signal average near 49, but not yet stretched into oversold territory. That leaves room for additional seller pressure unless spot demand returns. For the 365-day ROI to climb back above 1.0, temporary stabilization would not be enough; BTC would need a sustained advance large enough to erase a full year of underperformance. Until price reclaims those averages, rallies risk being treated as corrective rather than trend-changing.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the nearest Bitcoin resistance at $63,081 with a strong 90/100 score, driven by POC, Fibo 0.214, MACD cross and pivot-point confluence. The first meaningful support at $61,651 scores 54/100, supported by Fibo 0.114 and HVN. With spot at $62,894, RSI at 41.61 and a bearish MACD, momentum remains fragile. Derivatives add caution: funding is near neutral at 0.0002%, open interest stands at $14.0 billion, and the long/short account ratio of 2.20 shows 68.7% of accounts positioned long. Combined with Fear and Greed at 29, crowded longs could fuel another downside leg if $61,651 fails, while reclaiming $63,081 would open $64,430.