Crypto Nears $81,000 as Midterm Rebound Faces Its Decisive Test

Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 After the Midterms

The bounce has put prices back at the levels that decide the daily charts, but it has not yet answered whether October's correction is over. Bitcoin pushed above $80,000 in the early hours of Thursday, gaining 4.2% over 24 hours and touching 81,196 at its peak, its strongest single-day performance since the start of the month. COINOTAG's live monitoring shows the price at 80,748 at the time of writing, still marginally higher on the session. Ethereum worked harder still, adding 6.35% and trading near 2,421 after ranging between an intraday low of 2,226 and a high of 2,450. Both leading assets recovered part of the ground ceded over the weekend, though the early-November losses are far from fully unwound.

The catalyst was political. The midterm results stripped the president's party of single-party control in Washington, and risk assets rallied on the reduced-uncertainty read. Equities split in the same session: the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 3.03% to 53,356.12, while the S&P 500 added 1.58% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.44%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell roughly 3% the other way, as data-center stocks sold off under the weight of AI-regulation FUD. Majors followed the move. Solana added 3.48% to 95.79 after reaching 98.14, and XRP rose 3.29% to 1.3031, peaking at 1.3414. Sentiment moved with prices. The Fear & Greed Index climbed from 34, deep in fear territory, to a neutral 50, only its second neutral print in eight days. The index had read 51 on October 29 and then spent six consecutive sessions between 26 and 37 before this week's shift. A neutral reading is not euphoria; it marks the exit from six days of fear rather than the greed that accompanies tops. Whether traders convert that stabilization into fresh demand is the question the week's remaining sessions must answer.

Solana Below $100, Zcash at $1,300

The November 4 daily charts set the bar this rally must clear. Solana spent that session at 92.69, having lost the psychologically important 100 level and extended its slide from October highs near 124. It traded below every major moving average, including the longer-term average near 98 that had supported the September recovery. The RSI sat near oversold territory, while volume rose during the breakdown and made the loss of 100 harder to dismiss. Resistance stacks at 98 to 100 and then 103 to 108; support waits near 90, and a break below it opens 85 and then the 80 region. The recovery to 95.79 since that chart has closed part of the gap but leaves Solana under the same ceiling.

Ethereum's November 4 chart read the same way, near 2,317 after a dip toward 2,200, but the newer sessions have already rewritten part of it: the asset closed at 2,425 and now trades above 2,400, the level that chart flagged as the one making a push toward 2,500 credible. The correction behind it started with a rejection from 2,750 to 2,800 in early October and left lower highs and lower lows; support below sits at 2,250, then 2,200, with 2,100 behind those. NEAR Protocol traded at 4.02, well under its October peak near 6, below its shorter-term averages but still above the longer-term ones near 3.65 and 3. A cluster of moving averages at 4.30 to 4.60 forms its first ceiling, with support at 3.80 and 3.65, and volume remains thin beside September's explosive rally, which drew broad retail and market-maker participation. Zcash is the outlier that held up, near 1,288 after bouncing from the 1,150 region and still above its long-term averages near 1,050 and 850. Its test is 1,300, the level that capped the price repeatedly through October; clearing it opens 1,350 and then 1,400, though sellers have reappeared at those prices all month.

The 82,064 Test

The rally has answered the first question these charts posed by reclaiming broken ground, but not whether it restarts a bull market or merely interrupts a longer bear market. Bitcoin's daily close of 80,504 sits above the 20-day average at 80,320 and the 200-day at 73,231, yet below the 50-day at 82,064, with a bearish MACD histogram that narrowed on the day and an RSI of 50.6. Ethereum closed at 2,425 with an RSI of 54.1, an expanding bullish MACD and a price above the mid-Bollinger band at 2,352. The observable that settles the debate is exact: a daily close above 82,064 clears the 50-day and aims the chart at the upper Bollinger band near 84,326, while a close back below 80,320 returns the argument to sellers. For Ethereum, 2,494, the upper band, is the matching test.