Darkfost Flags Bitcoin (BTC) MVRV Below 1.2: Third Valuation Alert of 2026

Third Valuation Alert of 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) spent the five trading sessions from Monday, November 9 through Friday, November 13 under sustained redemption pressure. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.0653 billion in cumulative net outflows across the stretch, and daily issuer flow disclosures show no single session in that window where creations matched withdrawals. The week ending November 13 was the second consecutive week of net outflows for the product group, so the withdrawal run now covers a fortnight. The Bitcoin (BTC) price stood near $64,433 at the time of writing, about 1.6% lower over the past 24 hours, and the tape and the flow ledger point the same direction. A weekly net flow measures the period's net movement of money across an entire product lineup; it does not by itself mean an equal amount of Bitcoin was sold on spot venues.

Valuation gauges crossed their own thresholds against that backdrop. On November 15 the on-chain analyst Darkfost posted that the MVRV ratio, computed as market capitalization divided by realized capitalization, had slipped below 1.2, a level he reads as a sign that Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly undervalued. Realized capitalization prices each coin at the value of its last on-chain move, so the ratio locates the market price against the aggregate on-chain cost basis. The alert has now fired three times in 2026, and Darkfost dated both earlier triggers: February, when Bitcoin traded just above $60,000, and the June-July stretch, when the price reached $57,000. A second gauge turned on the same day. XWIN Japan placed the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, at roughly 0.98 as of November 15, below the 1.0 line that separates coins moving at an average profit from coins moving at an average loss, and read the sub-1.0 print as loss realization accelerating. The two readings come from separate contributors and measure different things, so they cannot be combined into a single bottom call.

What the Two Gauges Do Not Say

Each number carries qualifications that matter for how it should be read. An MVRV alert only confirms that an indicator has passed a set level; it does not on its own show that buying interest increased, and neither metric measures current demand directly. Reference descriptions of MVRV treat readings below 1.0 as the zone where market bottoms have historically formed, while Darkfost's 1.2 line is a separately tuned trigger, not that reference threshold. He wrote that he adjusts it downward over time to reflect MVRV's long-term decline, but the post offers no historical adjustment values and no reproducible validation, which leaves the two earlier instances as the only evidence of how the trigger has performed. SOPR sits on a different layer of the chain. It compares the value of an output at the moment it is spent with its value when it was created, aggregating the profit or loss of the coin groups that moved. A sub-1.0 print means moved coins changed hands at an average loss, not that they were all sent to exchanges for sale: coins can move between wallets under the same owner, the pattern of long-term holders who HODL through drawdowns, and a sub-1.0 day does not by itself prove a crypto whale is unloading. XWIN Japan's post also left the SOPR variant behind the 0.98 figure and the exact observation time unstated, which makes direct comparison with other SOPR-family readings difficult. The same post set out its test for a recovery signal: SOPR back above 1.0, with spot demand, ETF inflows and liquidity improving together. The November 9-13 tally contained no inflows.

Extreme Fear, Oversold Tape

The live readings frame where that leaves the market. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $64,433, between the strongest support below at $62,969, which scores 87 out of 100 on COINOTAG's composite scale, and the nearest resistance above at $65,747, scored 72. Momentum is oversold, with the RSI at 22 and a bearish MACD inside a downtrend, while the Fear and Greed Index reads 10 out of 100, deep in extreme fear. Positioning is the counterpoint: perp funding is marginally negative at -0.0012%, yet 76.3% of tracked accounts sit long, a 3.21 long/short ratio, so the crowd has not capitulated. This slide also did not start with the metric posts: our Bitcoin coverage logged $1.08 billion of net Coinbase selling, a $1.6 billion liquidation week and a whale's 3x long down $680,000 in earlier reports, and the Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks the levels as they move. That matters for the recovery test on the table, because it needs ETF inflows that have not appeared; a session or two of net creations, or a close above $65,747, would be the first hard confirmation, while losing $62,969 would take out the strongest floor on the board. For the window this piece opened with, the ledger is closed: five sessions, five outflow days, $1.0653 billion net out of the ETF complex, and the valuation lines, MVRV under 1.2 and SOPR near 0.98, still on the bearish side of their marks.