Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Holder Profit Share Slides to 70% From Near 100% in a Month

30% of Short-Term Supply Underwater

Roughly 30% of the Bitcoin (BTC) supply held by the market's newest buyers has moved into unrealized loss, on-chain data from Glassnode shows, a sharp reversal from late September when nearly the entire short-term cohort was still in profit. The share of short-term holder (STH) coins sitting in profit stood close to 100% at the end of September and has since slid to about 70%, a drop of roughly 30 percentage points inside a month. Short-term holders are addresses that acquired their coins fewer than 155 days ago, and the gauge tracks how much unrealized gain or pain those entrants are carrying. The correction has unfolded in a market structure where spot ETF products now sit on both sides of daily flow, so the entries inside this 155-day window span passive and fast money alike. The mechanics are straightforward: as the Bitcoin (BTC) price corrected, buyers who entered near local highs watched paper gains flip red, and the profitable share of the cohort shrank in step. Live readings put the price near $80,067, up 0.4% over the past 24 hours, so the on-chain mix has not changed materially since the data was compiled early on Tuesday. The market reaction has centered on the sell-side arithmetic. When close to all short-term supply carried gains, any further climb handed a broad set of holders a ready reason to sell into strength. With only about 70% of the cohort still in the green, the stock of coins available for profit-taking is smaller, and the overheated profit structure on-chain indicators flagged a month ago has partially cleared. Several analysts read the current zone as one where buying carries a comparatively lower burden than it did at the end of September, because a rebound would meet less profit-taking supply on the way up. The caveat travels with the headline number: a falling profit share measures the capacity to sell at a gain, not what holders will actually do.

Our own composite support and resistance levels frame where that arithmetic now meets price. The strongest demand zone sits at $78,068, scored 98 out of 100, with resistance at $81,603 carrying a score of 80/100; spot trades between them near $80,067, and the daily setup still reads as a downtrend, with RSI at 41.37 and a bearish MACD signal. Positioning stays mildly long: perp funding runs at 0.0069% and the long/short account ratio stands at 2.38. A daily close under $78,068 would hand the correction a lower low, while reclaiming $81,603 would be the first on-chart evidence that the profit reset has done its work.

The end-of-September setup explains why the shift matters. With essentially every coin bought in the previous five months showing a gain, the market carried a heavy profit-taking load, and any rally had to drag that overhang uphill; on-chain indicators described that structure as overheated at the time. Easing it is why the current zone is read as one where adding exposure costs comparatively less in overhang terms. The optimism is conditional. A lower profit share does not automatically mean less selling. Investors who have flipped into loss can exit precisely because they fear a deeper drawdown, and the passage from gains to losses tends to hit sentiment hardest; investor psychology often sours fastest during that crossover, which is why a profitability ratio on its own cannot mark a bottom. Recent on-chain work points both ways on that risk. Our earlier reporting flagged a possible bottom signal after 30,000 wallets exited the network, and separately recorded whale inflows to Binance falling 35.6% over two months, a trend in our live Bitcoin coverage that shows distribution pressure from larger holders had been cooling before this reset. Glassnode's guidance is to watch what holders do rather than what they could do: the short-term holder SOPR, the realized profit ratio that records whether coins are sold at a gain or a loss, and exchange inflows, the metric that captures coins moving toward venues for potential sale, including parcels large enough to belong to a crypto whale. SOPR above one confirms coins are still leaving at a gain, readings below one show loss-side selling underway, and a series hovering near one while price chops sideways marks handoffs between traders rather than exits. Whether recent buyers HODL through their first drawdown or hand coins to deeper pockets will register there first. That realized flow, not the profit share alone, will settle whether the 70% reading marks a durable reset or the opening stage of a larger unwind.