CryptoQuant Analyst Darkfost Puts Bitcoin (BTC) Supply in Profit Near 60% Excluding Dormant Coins

Dormant Coins Out, 60% in Profit

Bitcoin (BTC) price held the $84,000 area into October 7 as an on-chain gauge on its supply returned a reading that argues against the overheating narrative. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published the calculation that day, showing that the share of Bitcoin (BTC) supply sitting in profit stands at roughly 60% once coins that have not moved for more than 10 years are stripped out of the count. The ratio has stayed close to that level since August, which he reads as most actively circulating BTC having climbed back into profit without the market entering the overheated zones of past cycles. The figures appear in his on-chain analysis post, which sets out the exclusion, the 60% figure and the August starting point in one place.

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The supply-in-profit gauge, in the form CryptoQuant tracks it, measures how much of circulating Bitcoin sits above its acquisition cost at the current price. A rising ratio means more holders are in the green, while a falling one means losses are spreading through the active cohort. The exclusion is the load-bearing part of the calculation. Coins dormant for a decade were accumulated at very low cost, sit deep in profit and almost never reach the market, and a share of them is likely lost for good because the private keys are gone. Keeping them in the standard figure makes the position of active investors look stronger than it is, in the analyst's view. Removing this large, largely illiquid supply, the kind of untouched stockpiling associated with whale wallets, produces what he calls a more realistic picture of the market. Read on that adjusted basis, the market is still “far from overheated” on medium- and long-term horizons, even with much of the liquid supply back in profit. For cycle context, earlier phases in which the market overheated pushed the profit ratio well above today's reading, and our primer on the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart maps those bands for readers new to cycle gauges.

A Decision Point for Year-Old Holders

Where the 60% reading leaves the market, in Darkfost's framing, is a specific group at the center of the next move: investors who have carried positions for close to a year. That cohort now faces a choice between holding the position, taking profit while the market sits in the green, or exiting at a smaller gain or with losses capped. The tension between those camps is what makes the current zone decisive rather than the number itself.

Two pressures pull in opposite directions. As price rises, more holders flip into profit and can keep their coins in place to wait for continuation; at the same time, holders approaching their cost basis, or sitting on only thin gains, may prefer to sell into strength. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $84,200 when the dataset was published on October 7, so that balance is being tested right at current levels. Our desk flagged the same area earlier in a note on how BTC slides to $84K as the triangle range nears its apex, and the on-chain ratio adds a holder-behaviour layer to that chart picture. The 60% level is not, by itself, a buy or sell signal. It works better as a balance zone that places the market in a decision phase. If the ratio climbs further while price holds or advances around $84,000, that would point to fresh demand coming in; if the ratio rises without price strength, cost-basis sellers would be supplying the market instead. Direction, in this reading, is settled by the supply-demand balance rather than by the gauge. For holders leaning toward patience, staying in is a deliberate HODL rather than inertia, and the coming sessions will show how much of the year-old cohort keeps to it.

What Would Break the Reading

The load-bearing record here is the analyst's own published post, which states the 60% figure, the 10-year exclusion and the August starting point in one place and can be checked directly against on-chain data rather than taken second-hand. As COINOTAG reads it, the gauge works as a location marker for active supply, not a price forecast, and no hard invalidation level was drawn; the claim stays conditional on the ratio and price moving together around $84,000. If profit supply keeps rising while Bitcoin (BTC) holds that area, the structure firms up; if it rises into flat or falling prices, the same metric turns into the seller ledger. Our Bitcoin hub and the Bitcoin technical analysis page track how that balance resolves.