Bitcoin Tradable Supply May Be 20% Lower, CZ Says

Bitcoin News

The circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) may be far smaller than headline issuance data suggest, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao argued, reviving a scarcity debate ahead of the next halving. He noted that more than 20.07 million coins had already been mined by August 2026, leaving only about 4.4% of the 21 million-coin cap still unissued. Zhao’s central point is that the extracted total overstates tradable float because a meaningful share is immobilized. He estimated that 10% to 20% of existing coins may be lost, locked, or permanently unreachable, including wallets with missing private keys. That distinction matters for Bitcoin (BTC) investors modeling long-term supply, because coins that cannot move do not respond to price signals or halving-driven issuance changes. The comment reframes the asset as deflationary collateral rather than a fully liquid float.

On the regulatory side, Russia moved to curb Bitcoin mining in one of its most important infrastructure zones. Government decree No. 936 prohibits mining and participation in mining pools in Moscow, the surrounding Moscow Region, and parts of Kursk through Dec. 31, 2032. The measure, signed July 25 and published July 31, was framed by the Energy Ministry as a year-round safeguard against power-capacity shortages. Official figures tied to the decree indicate mining currently consumes roughly 1 gigawatt in the Moscow power system, while regional data-center capacity may reach 3.6 gigawatts, or 17% of peak demand, by 2032. Russia contributed about 175 exahashes per second, or 16.4% of global Bitcoin hashrate, in the first quarter, making the restriction a meaningful test for ASIC mining deployment.

Market strategists are recalibrating Bitcoin’s cycle map after the asset’s pullback from its prior peak. Swan Bitcoin chief executive Cory Klippsten said he expects a bottom around October, roughly 12 months after the previous high above $126,000 in early October 2025. He cautioned that historical patterns rely on a limited sample, but suggested a possible dip to $57,000 or even $53,000 before a recovery toward about $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving. Klippsten has also highlighted long-term holders accumulating a record 14.7 million BTC and dismissed most altcoin projects as money, while separate analytics work has watched for an earlier turn: a monthly close above $63,000 could flip several cycle indicators bullish and confirm a bear market floor for Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor, founder and chief executive of MicroStrategy, continued to argue that Bitcoin trading below $100,000, and well under its prior all-time high, represents a rare long-term accumulation zone. His thesis rests on fixed supply, recurring halving events that reduce new issuance, and demand from exchange-traded funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign institutions. In this view, Bitcoin functions as digital capital that can preserve purchasing power while fiat currencies depreciate. MicroStrategy has translated that conviction into repeated purchases financed through equity and debt issuance, treating short-term volatility as secondary. Skeptics counter that leverage creates vulnerability during sharp drawdowns and that regulatory or index-related changes could pressure treasury vehicles. Higher-for-longer interest rates also raise the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets compared with safer government debt.

The largest near-term structural risk highlighted in recent market commentary involves MicroStrategy and MSCI index rules. On Oct. 10, one of the market’s sharpest episodes saw more than $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated within 24 to 48 hours, while Bitcoin fell from around $122,000 to $105,000. That same day, MSCI floated a consultation that could have excluded companies whose digital assets exceeded 50% of total assets, a threshold that directly threatened MicroStrategy. Although that crypto-specific proposal was withdrawn in January, MSCI has returned with a broader “Non-Operating Companies” framework. Under the pilot based on May data, MicroStrategy failed the initial test because more than half of its assets were not tied to operating business, and exclusion could follow if it fails four of five additional tests. Earlier estimates suggested index exclusion could trigger up to $8.8 billion in forced selling.

COINOTAG’s reading is that these developments form one theme: Bitcoin’s tradable float is becoming a legal and institutional variable, not only a protocol constant. Zhao’s lost-coin estimate and Saylor’s treasury strategy both reduce liquid supply, while Moscow’s decree shows governments can directly constrain production. The official decree No. 936 explicitly bans mining and pool participation in covered territories through Dec. 31, 2032. At the same time, MSCI’s proposed tests could force index funds to alter exposure to large corporate holders. With market data cited near $63,000 and cycle models split between October and earlier bottoms, investors should distinguish fixed issuance from genuinely available, unencumbered supply.