CryptoQuant: Bitcoin (BTC) Whale Holdings Hit 3.03M, Highest Since November 2025

Whale Holdings Reach 3.03 Million BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) whale holdings have climbed to 3.03 million BTC, their highest level since November 21, 2025, and they remain short of the 3.23 million peak of the previous cycle. A research report CryptoQuant published on October 13 shows investors holding at least 1,000 BTC back in buying mode, with monthly growth in large-holder balances running at the fastest pace since February. The metric strips out exchange and mining pool addresses, so it measures coins held by large private investors rather than platform inventory. That exclusion matters: coins sitting on exchanges or in mining pools move for operational reasons and would distort a holder-behavior reading. The cohort counts every address controlling 1,000 BTC or more, a threshold that typically captures funds, custodians and wealthy individuals. The analyst account CryptosR_Us shared a chart of the trend, which shows the group turning from distribution back to hodling. The turnaround took months to form: CryptoQuant analysts note large-holder balances bottomed near 2.87 million Bitcoin (BTC) in December 2025 after a stretch of sustained selling. In August, large holders added a net 43,000 BTC over 60 days, a move that ended a sell-off which had run until Bitcoin accumulation resumed near $60,000. That pace has carried through to the current reading of 3.03 million. One transfer shows the scale of private positioning in real time: on-chain monitoring via Lookonchain flagged five newly created wallets receiving a combined 1,162 BTC, worth about $96.77 million, from Wintermute within 12 hours. The receiving addresses are publicly viewable on Arkham, and splitting a single order across several fresh wallets is standard custody practice for large holders, though the buyer's identity remains undisclosed. Wintermute operates as a crypto market maker, so the withdrawal likely moved trading inventory into long-term storage rather than toward an exchange. Bitcoin (BTC) price traded near $83,700 when the report landed.

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September Borrowing Rose 83.30%

Lending activity confirms the same tilt toward size. In September, the number of users borrowing USDT against Bitcoin (BTC) collateral above $10 million grew 83.30%, while borrowing under $100,000 fell 17.20%. Leverage is concentrating among large players as smaller borrowers unwind, a split that matches the cohort picture in the holdings report. Exchange-traded funds supply a second demand channel: United States spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped to net year-to-date inflows of roughly 2,300 BTC, about $1.5 billion, after early 2026 recorded cumulative outflows of about 83,000 BTC. An ETF cost basis works as a reference point because it approximates what the average fund buyer paid; holding above it keeps those positions in profit. The recovery has been uneven: outflows persisted in stretches even as the price defended its ETF cost basis of $81,500, where bids have so far held. Institutional demand, on this reading, returned in the second half of 2026 after a weak start to the year. CryptoQuant places the asset at the opening stage of a bull market while cautioning that a short-term pullback toward the 365-day moving average near $80,000 cannot be ruled out, a level tracked in our Bitcoin technical analysis. The firm had already built a Bitcoin (BTC) October bottom case earlier this month as exchange reserves fell 1.7%. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju takes the firmer position, saying the bear market cycle has ended and forecasting bullish or sideways conditions over the next 12 to 24 months. Traders on prediction platforms are more cautious: pricing on Kalshi puts Bitcoin near $83,503 by the end of 2026, close to where spot traded when the report was released. Both channels, lending and fund flows, point to accumulation by larger, better-capitalized holders rather than retail.

The Distance to 3.23 Million

The holdings line and the borrowing line describe one accumulation cycle at different stages. Whale balances of 3.03 million BTC now stand against a prior peak of 3.23 million, and closing that distance would mark a full reversal of the distribution wave that ran through late 2025. The downside reference sits at the 365-day moving average near $80,000: if price slips below it, the open question is whether these same holders add on the dip the way they did near $60,000 in August. Kalshi's year-end price of $83,503 and the near-$83,700 spot level recorded at the report's release sit less than $200 apart, so traders currently price little directional movement into year-end. The proportion to watch through the rest of the quarter is 3.03 million held against 3.23 million at the last peak.