Bitrue Study: XRP Higher After 12 of 17 Oversold Readings Since 2023

12 Recoveries From 17 Oversold Reads

Bitrue AI and Bitrue Research Institute published a study on Monday concluding that, in 12 of 17 oversold readings since 2023, XRP was trading higher 90 days later. The historical half of the work comes from the institute, Bitrue's in-house desk for market-structure research. The report, titled “Oversold XRP: The Road to Recovery and the Signals to Watch,” lands while the token is oversold on both its daily and 4-hour charts, and while the XRP price has slipped roughly 4.6% across the last 24 hours in our live monitoring. Bitrue AI, the exchange's AI trading copilot, currently reads a 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 24, a level it treats as oversold, and it flags two risks at once: a sharp rebound or a further slide. The token sits well below its one-year high on that read. For XRP, the copilot attaches a working price band, a directional call and a written account of how it got there, and its spot trading reads refresh every 15 minutes as conditions change. The study sets that live read against a backtest of daily data going back to January 2023 and takes up two questions holders are asking in this market: what has historically followed conditions like these, and which signals would show buyers stepping back in. The research arm says it recalculated the indicators the copilot cites, among them the Relative Strength Index and the Average Directional Index, and found readings consistent with the copilot's assessment. That cross-check matters because the copilot explains its reasoning rather than issuing a bare signal. Traders can follow the signals in real time through Bitrue AI, and the full document is available as the downloadable Oversold XRP report from Bitrue, the first venue to offer XRP as a base trading pair.

Base First, and No Signal Fired Yet

The backtest counted every occasion since 2023 on which the daily RSI fell below 35, spacing events at least 10 days apart, and found 18 in total. Seventeen had a complete 90-day window, and in 12 of those cases XRP traded higher three months on. Across all days in that stretch, the token sat higher after three months a little over half the time, so an oversold print has been a better-than-average starting point. The sample is uneven: over 60 days the oversold events fared no better than an ordinary day, price dipped further before turning in most cases, and four of the five 90-day declines landed in one stretch between October 2025 and January 2026. With the sample below 20 events, the institute treats the results as historical context, not a basis for prediction. The second finding concerns order. The study sorts every trading day since 2023 into four market states: a range, a transition zone, a confirmed uptrend and a confirmed downtrend, the closest of the four to a bear market. In conditions resembling today's, no path has run straight into a confirmed uptrend; within 10 days, a range formed first in 43.9% of cases and a confirmed downtrend in 49.6%. Recoveries that did arrive followed a base-building phase in which price settled sideways first, the pattern the report names “base first.” The accumulation checklist then lists three confirmations: volume on up days overtaking volume on down days, on-balance volume, a running sum of up-day and down-day volume, turning higher while price holds steady, and a daily close above the upper edge of the copilot's working band. None is present today. Over the past 20 days, down-day volume has outweighed up-day volume by roughly two to one, and on-balance volume is still falling. The signals have also tended to show up together, not one after another: in August 2026, the volume shift landed on the breakout day itself. Ammy, AI Product Manager at Bitrue, said the study does not answer the bottom question with a price target but with the confirmations that show buyers returning, noting that “oversold markets” leave traders asking whether the bottom is in.

The cautions in the document outweigh its headline ratio. A 12-of-17 record rests on fewer than 20 events, fails at the 60-day mark, and its five failures clustered in one stretch, so the history is thin and uneven. The reading also lands after a 20% monthly loss, XRP's weakest run since February, which lines up with the downtrend-first odds the report documents. For holders applying DYOR discipline, the actionable part is the base-first path: history points to a range forming before any trend, and the three confirmations, none of which has fired, are the test to watch. Few altcoin datasets of this kind run to four years of daily data. Our XRP technical analysis page tracks current levels; the bottom call, on the report's own terms, stays with the signals, not with a forecast.