Bitwise Research Chief Sees Bitcoin (BTC) Topping $100,000 by Year-End

Institutional Buying and Hard-Asset Demand

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, expects Bitcoin (BTC) to end 2026 higher, potentially clearing $100,000. The target sits roughly 23% above a market where the Bitcoin (BTC) price held near $81,500 on Sunday, and it lands against a backdrop in which traders expect inflation and elevated interest rates to cap gains. Rasmussen's desk tracks institutional flows and regulatory development full time, and Bitwise runs index funds and institutional products tied to the assets that desk covers, so the case is built close to the flows it describes. He counts three forces as mattering more than the current economic noise. The first is institutional buying through exchange-traded funds and corporate purchases. The second is demand for hard assets as inflation, rising government debt and currency debasement erode confidence in fiat money, the same fiscal concerns that underpin strategic Bitcoin reserve accumulation at the sovereign level. The third is clearer regulation, which lowers the perceived risk of owning crypto. In his framing, those tailwinds significantly outweigh the potential headwinds. Wider analyst agreement covers the longer-term support from institutional investment, regulatory progress and worries about government debt; the live dispute is over timing, specifically whether those forces can drive a breakout before the end of 2026. Rasmussen does expect volatility around a possible late-October Federal Reserve rate increase and November's U.S. midterm elections, and he concedes a breakout is difficult in that environment. He reads the uncertainty differently from the cautious camp, though: for him it is a window to build positions ahead of what he expects to be a significant rerate once the market churns through the period.

Rate Risks Meet Flushed Leverage

Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at London-based trading and market-data firm LO:TECH, holds a narrower base case: an $85,000–$95,000 range into year-end. Macro conditions, in his reading, have worked against Bitcoin (BTC) all year. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September, and markets now price a December hike at roughly 75%. Inflation data released Oct. 14 complicated the picture: consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, core prices gained 0.3%, and gasoline accounted for more than half of the headline increase. A return above $100,000, he argues, requires expectations for a December hike to give way to a pause, helped by easing oil prices and cooling inflation. James Butterfill, CoinShares' head of research, frames the tension as sticky inflation set against a weakening labor market: cooling prices would give the Fed room to respond to employment weakness, while renewed inflation pressure would keep policy restrictive and weigh on bitcoin. Investment products drew $11.1 billion of inflows from mid-July before the pace slowed, which he reads as uncertainty rather than deteriorating fundamentals, though sustained gains require renewed buying. Higher Treasury yields normally weigh on Bitcoin (BTC), though Butterfill sees that link shifting if investors treat the yields as compensation for fiscal risk. A Citi research note published earlier this week put total crypto market capitalization up from roughly $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in the third quarter, with institutional ETF flows turning positive and regulatory work continuing even after the Clarity Act failed to advance. Derivatives positioning adds a different angle. Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, Nomura's crypto subsidiary, expects bitcoin to stay a macro trade into year-end, taking direction from longer-dated Treasury yields, and he calls the rebound from summer lows unconvincing given thin volumes, fading ETF inflows and slower corporate buying. Leverage has largely been flushed out, with speculative excess migrating into altcoin markets, and funding rates, the periodic payments exchanged between perpetual futures traders, sit at or below zero. Options pricing, the rates at which market makers quote calls and puts, remains tilted toward downside protection, and recent liquidation data put 77% of $192M in long liquidations at the last deleveraging wave. A decisive move through $90,000, in his view, would set off another round of short covering, and with implied volatility near its lows, upside calls offer a way to position for a rally without FOMO buying in the spot market.

The Divide Narrows to December

Our reading: the disagreement is less about direction than about the Fed's calendar. Both camps expect fiscal and institutional demand to assert itself; the split between $100,000 and $85,000–$95,000 turns on whether a December hike is still live when the year closes. Positioning is the quiet positive. With funding at or below zero and implied volatility near its lows, the market carries little fuel for a downside cascade and a large payoff if a catalyst arrives. The level to watch is $90,000, where a decisive break would force shorts to cover, and our Bitcoin technical analysis maps the resistance above the current range. A widely followed analyst consensus index reads 49.2, and trader Killa's $95,000 target after the midterms lands inside LO:TECH's range. One disclosure matters here: Bitwise sells products tied to the asset it is talking up, while LO:TECH and Laser Digital trade the market they describe.