BlackRock's IBIT Drove All of Monday's $65.4 Million Bitcoin (BTC) ETF Outflow

Update 13:42 UTC: The demand side behind the flows is thinning on the order books as well.

IBIT Carries the Full Monday Exit

Over Monday's single session, Oct 12, United States spot ETF funds tracking Bitcoin (BTC) recorded a combined net outflow of $65.4 million, and the entire sum came out of BlackRock's IBIT. IBIT, the cohort's flagship by cumulative intake, is the only name on Monday's ledger. No product among the twelve tracked funds posted a creation on the day, and none of the other eleven registered so much as a dollar of movement. The figures come from daily creation and redemption disclosures, the issuer filings that measure cash entering and leaving each trust rather than secondary-market churn, compiled by the flow tracker Farside. The print breaks a fragile rhythm: after two consecutive days of redemptions beginning Oct 7, aggregate flows had turned to net creations on Friday, Oct 9, only to flip back to outflows on Monday. Across the five trading days from Oct 6 through Oct 12, the stretch the running totals measure, net redemptions reached $654.5 million, more than ten times Monday's tally. Fidelity's FBTC led that stretch with $305.8 million of outflows, followed by ARK Invest and 21Shares' ARKB at $122 million, Grayscale's original GBTC at $47.5 million and Bitwise's BITB at $45.3 million. Grayscale's smaller Bitcoin (BTC) trust shed another $11 million, and VanEck's HODL fund gave up $1.2 million. Only Morgan Stanley's MSBT, at $7.8 million, and Franklin Templeton's EZBC, at $4.7 million, absorbed cash over the five days, together less than a fifth of Monday's single-fund exit. CoinShares' BRRR, Invesco Galaxy's BTCO and WisdomTree's BTCW sat out the stretch entirely. The Bitcoin price sits near $83,355 as of this writing, 0.2% above its level when the flow data landed at 03:47 UTC on Tuesday, though it is 0.3% lower across the past 24 hours.

The flows sit against a backdrop of revived retail derivatives activity. Single-stock options now turn over roughly $700 billion a day in underlying share value, near 2021 levels, a figure supplied by options-focused investment manager Carrick Lane in a Wall Street Journal report. Bitcoin more than doubled during that earlier boom, climbing from about $29,000 at the end of 2020 to a record near $65,000 by April 2021, though the data does not show one drove the other. Retail sentiment reads close to that year's benchmark, with 40.3% of surveyed investors expecting higher stock prices within six months per the American Association of Individual Investors. Citadel Securities data indicates retail trading typically rebounds in October, and whether crypto funds capture any of that flow could decide if Bitcoin (BTC) repeats its 2021 run.

The scale of Monday's print shrinks against the month's earlier sessions: on Oct 7, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $484.9 million net outflow, with IBIT contributing $207.7 million, so the Oct 12 redemption ran roughly one-third the size of IBIT's withdrawal that day. Set against IBIT's roughly $65.67 billion in cumulative net intake, the $65.4 million exit amounts to about one-tenth of one percent of the capital the fund has attracted. The cohort as a whole manages around $106 billion, or 6.35% of Bitcoin's total market cap, and the source of the flow data attributed the broader pressure to rising Treasury yields and shifting risk sentiment, while noting those conditions do not confirm what prompted IBIT holders to redeem.

Liquidity provider Wintermute, in its Oct 12 market update circulated on X, put the week's cumulative outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs at roughly $679 million, a reading that runs ahead of the $654.5 million net redemption our flow ledger shows for Oct 6 through Oct 12, and said the only two conditions for a durable Bitcoin recovery are stability in long-term Treasury yields and a resumption of net creations into the funds. The firm flagged the 30-year Treasury yield's 5.64% print on Sept 30 as the level to watch on rates, and set $82,500 as its short-term Bitcoin level by 15:50 UTC, later than the $83,355 reading at the flow data's 03:47 UTC release, warning that a price rise without returning ETF inflows would leave the recovery fragile.

The demand side behind the flows is thinning on the order books as well. The volume-weighted Coinbase premium, the spread between Coinbase and Binance prices that reflects US institutional activity against retail and whale books, has been mostly negative since mid-September, and per CryptoQuant readings it widened after Oct 7 to a low of minus 0.0012–0.0013 on Oct 12, its weakest since July. The Bitcoin price, which sat near $83,355 when the flow data landed, has since moved by 15:50 UTC, trading later on Thursday inside the $80,000–$85,000 band as US institutions used bounces there to take profits, and the pressure piled on with a stronger dollar: the dollar index pushed past 102, its highest since April last year, ahead of a September CPI print expected at 3.7%. Offsetting the selling, exchange-held Bitcoin fell from roughly 2.72 million coins in late September to 2.67 million by early October, and wallets holding 100 to 1,000 coins reached a record 20,384.

The market sits pinned between two well-scored bands on our composite support and resistance map for Bitcoin, with spot at $83,453.89 and a 24-hour gain of 1.02%. Nearest support sits at $80,947, where the lower Bollinger band, the 50-day simple moving average and a Fibonacci retracement converge, and the level scored 95 out of 100. Resistance at $84,488.86, marked by a Fibonacci retracement, a low-volume node and a bearish engulfing print, scored 85. Derivatives positioning offers little direction of its own: the perpetual funding rate reads 0.0006%, essentially neutral, and open interest stands at $15.68 billion, numbers that point to balanced market maker books rather than crowded leverage. Accounts lean modestly long at 1.34 to 1, and momentum is close to flat, with the relative strength index at 52.91 inside what our signals still classify as an uptrend. A sustained close below $80,947 would be the first sign the support is giving way, while a reclaim of $84,488.86 would put the next leg toward $87,382.69 on the table (as of 22:30 UTC).

September's $2.65 Billion Inflow Recedes

Zoom out and the picture reads as give-back rather than collapse. Since the cohort went live in January 2024, cumulative net inflows total $57.11 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT responsible for $65.67 billion of intake over that span, the deepest accumulation of any issuer, while Grayscale's converted GBTC trust has bled $27.9 billion, the counterweight that keeps the aggregate from looking stronger than it is. October's running total through Monday stands at $451.7 million net out, a sharp reversal from September, when the same group of funds pulled in $2.65 billion of net creations. The mechanical link runs one way inside a spot trust: creations put coins into the funds and redemptions force coins out, so a renewed streak of redemptions would add sell-side pressure at a moment when the tape offers little directional fuel. The next test of the $81,000 support area will run through this flow ledger as much as through any macro print, and the month has already produced violent tape: our coverage recorded a break above $82,000 that erased $488.6 million from 118,142 traders, and longs absorbed 89% of a $774 million liquidation wave. Longer-dated models have not abandoned the bull case either: Root projects a $126,000 all-time high by June 2027, a call that rests on the very flow persistence October is testing. As it stands, the five sessions from Oct 6 through Oct 12 close at $654.5 million in net redemptions, October through Monday holds at $451.7 million net out, and IBIT's Monday exit remains the single largest line inside both windows.