According to the Federal Reserve‘s latest dot plot, policy expectations for December are finely balanced. The forecast shows 6 of 19 officials favoring no change to the federal funds rate, including two voters with 2025 terms, Schmid and Gulsby. In contrast, 12 officials endorse a 25 basis point cut, while one official — Governor Milan — signals a 50 basis point cut.

The distribution underscores a shift toward easing, though the majority remain split between a shallow cut and a hold. Traders and analysts will parse these signals to frame the policy path for 2025 and calibrate rates, balance sheets, and risk premiums. FXStreet notes the 50 bps stance as the lone outlier among the committee, a detail that could influence yield curves and monetary policy expectations.