FedWatch Signals 22.1% Odds of January 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut, 77.9% Chance Rates Remain Unchanged — COINOTAG News

COINOTAG News reports on December 21 that CME’s FedWatch data assign a 22.1% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut in January, while the odds of keeping policy unchanged stand at 77.9%.

These readings underscore a data-driven approach to U.S. policy, with markets pricing a lower likelihood of near-term easing and a higher emphasis on inflation and payroll data in guiding the next move. As January approaches, traders continue to reprice rate expectations in response to incoming macro signals.

For crypto and risk assets, the implied policy path supports cautious positioning, given the sensitivity of funding costs and liquidity to the federal funds outlook. Investors should monitor upcoming releases and CME commentary to calibrate exposure ahead of the next decision.