FedWatch Update: 24.4% Chance of January 25bp Rate Cut; 44.4% Likelihood of 25bp Cut by March (9.5% for 50bp)

Crypto market observers are digesting the latest CME FedWatch readings, which place a 24.4% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut in January and a dominant 75.6% probability that rates stay unchanged. For the first quarter outlook, the odds tilt toward a potential 25 bps cut by March at 44.4%, while the chance of leaving policy unchanged sits near 46%, and the odds of a 50 bps cut total around 9.5%. These policy-path expectations are shaping crypto market sentiment and broader risk assets, as investors assess inflation trajectories and macro momentum alongside central-bank signaling.