China's Copper Import Premium Tops $200, Highest Since 2017

China Pays a Record Premium

Importers in China are paying more than $200 a tonne over London prices for copper, the steepest import premium recorded in data going back to 2017. The Yangshan premium, the extra cost Chinese buyers must cover above London Metal Exchange benchmarks, has more than doubled in three months and is up 700% since the start of 2026. The Kobeissi Letter put the spread at $217 on X, the widest since mid-August, and wrote that “the physical copper supply squeeze is far from over.” In other words, the analysts behind the post do not expect the physical balance to loosen any time soon.

@KobeissiLetter · X post

The Kobeissi Letter.

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Chinese stock is thinning underneath that bid. Inventories in the country have fallen by more than 25% to 54,356 tonnes, as a Bull Theory post on X set out, and the same account adds that replacement cargo from Africa needs one to two months to reach Chinese ports. Domestic smelters are trimming output as costs climb: refined copper production fell 1.1% year on year in the third quarter. Buyers have kept paying through the run-up, a sign that demand has not let up while stock sits below typical seasonal levels. At the start of 2026 the same premium stood at a fraction of today's level.

@BullTheoryio · X post

A Bull Theory post.

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That leaves a paradox inside the market. Global copper inventories still top 1.2 million tonnes, enough on paper to calm any buyer, yet a large share of that metal sits in the United States, drawn across the Pacific by the prospect of new tariffs. Stock that cannot easily reach Chinese ports does nothing to lower the premium Chinese importers pay, so the reading keeps climbing even while headline inventories look comfortable. Unless American warehouses start shipping metal back out, the cost of landing physical copper in China has little reason to fall.

London Futures Sink as Tariffs Pull Metal West

Paper copper has travelled the other way. Three-month futures fell 1.4% on Friday to settle at $14,154.50 a tonne, leaving the benchmark below its September record of $14,875 even as physical buyers keep paying up. The settlement sits about 5% shy of that September peak, a gap that says more about sentiment than about scarcity. Equity holders took the session harder: Southern Copper lost 7.42% and Freeport-McMoRan dropped 5.55% on October 30. Guangzhou Futures Co. blamed the slide on a tech selloff, saying the sharp fall in technology shares had fuelled doubt over returns on artificial intelligence investment, cooled risk appetite and pushed down on the metal. Crude oil at its highest since April added to the defensive mood, and the equity losses in producers were the sharpest risk-off print of the day.

The spread between physical and paper pricing has itself become a measure of scarcity: spot cargoes fetched more than $170 a tonne above three-month futures on Friday. The distortion points back to Washington. Expected tariffs on refined copper have pulled hundreds of thousands of tonnes toward the United States, thinning supply everywhere else, and the White House has yet to rule on a proposed 15% levy from January 2027. Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) analysts argue American stockpiles will stay frozen until the administration clearly steps back from the tariff. SMM still sees the short-term deficit persisting, though an unfavourable Shanghai-to-London price ratio should slow further gains in import premiums. Until that ruling lands, the paper market has a reason to stay heavy: a 15% tariff would keep drawing refined metal into the US and leave the rest of the world short.

Copper itself sits near its ceiling. The live quote stands at $6.54, up 0.15% over 24 hours, and COINOTAG's composite scoring rates the $6.55 resistance at 100/100, with the $6.45 support below it at 95/100. The daily trend reading is a downtrend and the RSI sits at 45.2, a picture of paper weakness that mirrors Friday's futures slide rather than the tight physical market behind it. A decisive break above $6.55, or a clear ruling from the White House on the proposed 15% tariff, is what would force a re-rating; until then, $6.45 is the nearest scored floor.