Cobot Labs Finds a 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) Chart Twin That Gained 22% in Two Months

Bitcoin's Slide Toward $76,000

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,050 on Saturday, essentially flat over the past 24 hours, but the level marks the aftermath of a steep slide that carried the Bitcoin price from the $81,000 area on 4 November down to an intraday low in the middle $75,000s before a modest rebound. Market records put the asset at $76,088 at 07:00 on 6 November. The drop capped a volatile fortnight: Bitcoin hovered around $80,000 on 27 October, climbed to the $82,000 line on 28 and 29 October, then fell hard to roughly $77,000 on 30 October and spent several sessions ranging between $77,000 and $79,000. A rebound attempt on 4 November lifted the price to about $81,000 intraday, but the gain did not hold, and selling from 5 November drove the market back toward the $76,000 line.

COINOTAG's composite scoring maps the strongest support below the market at $74,849, where the lower Bollinger Band, first-tier support and the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement converge; that level scored 100 out of 100. The nearest overhead barrier sits at $76,364, scored 80/100, leaving the market compressed between its two most heavily contested levels. Momentum confirms the defensive posture: the relative strength index reads 38.78, the MACD signal is bearish and the composite trend label is a downtrend. Leverage remains engaged, with open interest near $15.9 billion and 77% of trading accounts positioned long, a 3.35 long/short ratio. Sentiment across the Bitcoin (BTC) market sits at 25/100 on the Fear & Greed Index, deep in extreme fear, a reading at which the decisions of long-term holders to HODL or sell become decisive for the floor.

Closest Chart Match: 6 June 2025

Institutional demand has offered little cushion during the slide: COINOTAG's tracking of spot ETF flows recorded $430 million of outflows in a recent session, led by Fidelity's $200 million exit. Against that backdrop, blockchain development firm Cobot Labs has published a chart-history study comparing the current price record with earlier cycles, and it finds an unusually close match. The method scores similarity between today's chart and past stretches with an error figure, where lower numbers mark closer matches. Its strongest match for the present pattern is 03:00 on 6 June 2025, when Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $101,542 and the two charts scored a similarity error of 5.25. In comparable past episodes, the study notes, the asset first extended its decline and only then turned higher, adding more than 20% within roughly two months of the matched point.

The 2025 stretch that Cobot Labs flags as the nearest twin followed a sequence close to the one now playing out on the largest proof-of-work asset. Bitcoin traded around $110,000 in late May 2025, slid into a $103,000–$106,000 range in early June, then broke down to the $101,000 line, where it printed $101,542 at the matching hour. The asset did not rebound at once. Mid-June pushed it intraday below $100,000 before buyers returned, and the market then ranged between $100,000 and $110,000 for several weeks; in the study's framing, that two-step pattern of a further shakeout, a base and then a trend change is what today's chart resembles. The advance arrived in July: the price cleared $110,000 early in the month, extended to roughly $120,000 by mid-July, consolidated in a $115,000–$120,000 band and peaked near $124,000 intraday in mid-August, a gain of about 22% from the matched point over roughly two months. That rally extended the cycle that followed the 2024 halving, and it gave part of the gain back afterward, easing to about $115,000 in the weeks after the August top.

The parallel therefore offers a two-month map, not a promise, and it sits against more cautious calls in circulation, including strategist Ben Cowen's $58,000 downside scenario for this drawdown. The reading breaks down if the market undercuts the base its 2025 counterpart defended: the June 2025 chart never closed decisively below its own lows before turning higher, so a sustained break below the support zone flagged above, or a renewed failure at the resistance ceiling that keeps the price pinned in its downtrend, would leave the rebound path without its historical footing.