Coinbase-Commissioned Study Finds $891B in Quarterly Stablecoin Transfers

$891 Billion Settled in One Quarter

Adjusted stablecoin transfer volume exceeded $400 million an hour through the third quarter of 2026, lifting total quarterly settlement value to $891 billion, more than four times the level recorded in early 2023. The numbers come from a study commissioned by Coinbase, which treats the stablecoin as payment infrastructure that now runs largely outside traditional banking hours. The report measures screened transfer volume rather than raw chain totals, and 73% of it occurred at night, on weekends or during holidays, when US bank settlement is closed. That always-on profile is the study's central finding: the dollar, in token form, clears around the clock while the banking system behind it does not.

Institutional adoption follows the same curve. Seven of the ten largest US banks have tested stablecoins or tokenized deposits for settlement, the latter being a format that represents commercial bank money in token form. Among mid-sized companies that move funds across borders, 30% now use or pilot stablecoins, triple the 10% share recorded in 2024. Two years ago the technology was a pilot topic; the report now records it in live cross-border workflows. Business-to-business payment volume on these rails grew 36% year over year. The report also counted 293 million blockchain addresses holding stablecoins, more than the combined number of cards issued by American Express and Discover, though its authors caution that one address does not equal one user. On the macro side, the model behind the study estimates that moving 80% of international transactions onto stablecoin networks would add $155 billion to global GDP each year and free roughly $3 trillion in liquidity that banks currently hold against cross-border payment flows. Both figures are scenario outputs rather than observed gains, and the researchers flag a possible offset: broader adoption could reduce bank lending, eroding some of the payment efficiency benefit.

112 Million Americans Open to Crypto Banking

Retail demand for bank-based digital asset services is measurable, but delivery has not caught up. A new national survey released Monday by the National Cryptocurrency Association found that 42% of US adults, about 112 million people, would be more likely to open an account at a bank offering crypto services, or to move a larger share of their financial business to such an institution. The survey grouped responses by demographic band and landed a day before the capitalization reading below. Some 18% said they want to buy or use stablecoins through their primary bank or financial institution, an option that pairs deposit relationships with tokenized dollars, and anyone weighing that product can start by comparing stablecoin types and risks across issuers. The delivery side lags well behind: 64% of respondents said their bank, credit union or financial adviser has never raised the topic of cryptocurrency with them, and 43% do not know whether their bank offers any such services.

Issuance tells a different story from usage. DefiLlama data shows total stablecoin market capitalization at $301.42 billion on Tuesday, about 0.6% below the $303.14 billion standing on Oct. 20, 2025, so a year of record settlement activity has left outstanding balances essentially flat. Forecasts have adjusted accordingly. Standard Chartered last week pushed back its projection for the market to reach $2 trillion, from 2028 to 2030, citing slower supply growth. Citi's base case sees $1.9 trillion by 2030, with an optimistic scenario at $4 trillion. The gap between those models is wide, and both hinge on the variable the transfer data now calls into question: how fast balances actually grow.

Velocity, Not Issuance, Drives Growth

In our reading, the quarter's data separates two things that usually move together: payment usage and float. Settlement value has quadrupled since early 2023 against a supply that is down 0.6% year over year, meaning the same tokens are clearing more transactions each quarter. Velocity, not issuance, is carrying the growth, and that is the logic behind Standard Chartered's revised timeline, where a $2 trillion market arrives two years later even as activity records keep falling. The bank survey points the other way. If 112 million adults stand ready to bank with crypto-capable institutions and 64% have never heard the topic raised by their own bank, distribution rather than trading is the untapped channel. Balances, not transfer volume, are the figure to watch from here.