CryptoQuant Flags New Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Cycle After 365-Day Moving Average Breakout

CryptoQuant Flags a New Bull Cycle

Bitcoin (BTC) has decisively cleared its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, and analytics firm CryptoQuant reads the breakout as the opening signal of a new bull market. Price pushed through the $76,000–$81,000 zone where long-term holders had concentrated selling, according to CryptoQuant, which pegs the next resistance band at $88,000–$90,000, with downside supports at the 200-day average near $70,600 and the 365-day average near $80,500. The firm's Bull Score stands at 80, deep inside bull territory above 60, and its cycle indicator flipped to “early bull” in mid-August before advancing into the full bull phase. Spot Bitcoin ETF demand adds ballast: US products logged no outflow days this week and posted their largest single-day inflow since October 2025, all despite rising US rates and a recent exchange hack.

JPMorgan research adds a supply-side layer to the thesis. A team led by analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimates Bitcoin traded below its roughly $85,000 production cost for 280 straight days before reclaiming the line in the bank's September report, a threshold that has historically acted as a soft price floor. Sustained sub-cost conditions force high-cost miners to sell, curtail output or exit entirely; with price back above cost, the bank expects forced miner selling to ease materially. The same note documents a structural shift: network hashrate sits about 19% below its October peak and mining difficulty has dropped roughly 15%, as listed miners redirect capacity toward AI and high-performance computing under premium data-center contracts. That pivot, the bank argues, means the production-cost floor will rise more slowly than in past cycles, with publicly listed miners ceding share to privately held sovereign operations.

Hashrate Slides as Miners Pivot to AI

On-chain data confirms the hashrate trend is live. Bitcoin's 7-day average hash rate fell to 915.8 EH/s on September 26, a three-week low and roughly 34.86 EH/s below the prior week, while miner reserve balances slipped 1,530 BTC to about 1,192,800 BTC — a wallet-balance decline that does not by itself prove coins were sold. The AI reallocation is visible in company disclosures: US miner Hyperscale Data halted all Bitcoin mining at its Michigan facility on September 1 and is converting the site into an AI data center, backed by a 20-megawatt master service agreement with a California-based NeoCloud provider on an initial 10-year term that could exceed $1.2 billion in revenue if extensions are exercised. In Ethiopia, power delivered to miners has been cut to about 23% of contracted volumes after reservoir inflows fell roughly 20%; local authorities reassess hydrology in October.

BTC Gains 10.3% on the Week

The weekly tape put hard numbers on the momentum. Across the September 19–25 window, Bitcoin closed at $84,408, up 10.3%, while the broader altcoin market rallied alongside: Ethereum gained 9.8% to $2,691, XRP jumped 18.7% to $1.54 and Solana added 15.3% to $116.98. Strategy returned to unrealized profit on its Bitcoin HODL position after adding to its treasury during the week, and a survey of 15 major institutional investors ranked among the period's most-read market stories. The rally extends a strong quarter — Bitcoin's 43.5% Q3 2026 advance was its second-best third quarter on record — and readers comparing valuations to historical cycle bands can consult our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide for context.

A Zcash-Style Privacy Layer Proposed

Protocol development is also in motion. A September 24 paper by three researchers at cryptography firm [alloc] init proposes Shielded Bitcoin, a design that would add Zcash-style private transfers to Bitcoin without changing its consensus rules. The scheme records BTC-denominated value in encrypted form and uses zero-knowledge proofs — cryptographic attestations that verify a transaction is valid without revealing the amount, sender or recipient — while the proof-of-work ledger itself continues doing only what it does today: recording and ordering transaction data. A separate replay layer of indexers and verifiers checks the proofs and updates the hidden state. The authors flag real caveats: an internal private transfer could fail external verification even after the Bitcoin transaction confirms, the paper does not define how ordinary BTC moves in and out of the system, and no deployment timeline exists. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

$95K Resistance in Play

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames the immediate battlefield. The $84,084 support — a confluence of Ichimoku Tenkan, S2 and Fibo 0.114 — scores 65/100 (STRONG), with the heavier $81,464 floor (Ichimoku Kijun, BB Middle, SMA 20) rated 68/100 beneath it; overhead, the $85,946 Keltner Upper resistance scores just 16/100, leaving thin technical friction before the $95,445 Fibo 1.272 level at 38/100. Our read: spot at $84,970, RSI at 66.27, a bullish MACD and a confirmed uptrend, with perp funding at 0.0040% and $16.09 billion in open interest skewed 1.32 long (57% long / 43% short) — constructive positioning, not yet overheated. Fear & Greed at 70 (Greed) argues against chasing strength. The bullish case holds above $84,084 and targets $95,445; a daily close below $81,464 invalidates it.