Analyst EGRAG Flags Fourth XRP Correction Phase With $1.06 Support Floor

EGRAG's Two-Week Cycle Map

The argument arrives before the number. Analyst EGRAG reads the current XRP drawdown as the fourth correction phase in a cycle shape that preceded the asset's two largest advances, in the 2018–2020 and 2021–2024 stretches. In a chart comparison posted on X on October 21, he aligned the biweekly candles of those earlier cycles against the present one and tested whether 2025–2026 is repeating the same four-stage washout. His conclusion, as published, is that XRP stands close to, or already inside, that fourth phase, and that the long-term figures attached to the map only apply if the pattern holds. The two prior cycles are the whole evidentiary base: in each, four separate correction legs gave way to advances that carried the price far above the washout lows, which is why the analyst treats repetition as something to verify rather than assume.

The level that carries the argument is a support band of $1.06 to $1.25. On the two-week chart, the 100-period simple moving average sits near $1.06, and EGRAG pairs it with the 200-period moving average as the gauge for whether the correction extends. Both lines are cycle-scale tools: on a chart of two-week candles they smooth the daily noise that makes shorter timeframes unreadable. A decisive loss of the band would put the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement at $0.92 in play as the next downside objective. How the XRP price behaves inside that band therefore decides which branch of the map applies, not any single daily candle.

The bull sequence is tiered. A first advance toward $1.67 opens it; a recovery to $2.40 would count as confirmation that the rebound has real strength behind it; $3.57, the prior major high marked on the chart, is the next reference above that. Beyond those sit $9.36, $15.47 and $31.87, all framed as long-horizon projections rather than targets for the coming weeks. The analysis itself states that the chart guarantees nothing, and that these are conditional paths contingent on the support holding.

Behind the numbers sits a method a reader can check. A simple moving average averages the closing prices of a fixed number of periods, so on a two-week candle chart a 100-period line spans roughly four years, which is why EGRAG treats it as a cycle-scale gauge rather than a short-term trading signal. In the 2018–2020 stretch he counts four distinct correction legs before the advance that followed; in 2021–2024 he counts the same four-leg structure. The current phase, on his read, is that fourth leg, and the $1.06–$1.25 band, where the 100-period line now rests, therefore carries more weight in the map than any single session's movement. The biweekly timeframe also sets the pace of judgment: a two-week candle only resolves when the period closes, so confirmations and invalidations on this map arrive in days rather than minutes. Nothing in the comparison relies on news flow, fund flows or supply data; it is a chart argument built on two completed cycles and one in progress.

The call is explicitly not a breakout signal. EGRAG's stated condition is that the falling chart structure must first invert and that upward momentum must visibly return before the upside sequence activates. Defending the band and reversing the downtrend are, in his framing, a process, and the published read draws a line between that work and any claim that an upward break is imminent. The $3.57 reference is the previous major high on his chart, a level sitting just under XRP's all-time high, and it comes into play only after the lower targets clear. For XRP holders the practical question is narrower than the headline figure: whether the band holds, and what a failed defense would mean for late buyers who could end up as exit liquidity if the $0.92 scenario arrives instead.

The Unconfirmed Reversal

Our reading: the structure of the call is historical analogy plus one testable level, and its weakest joint is the one EGRAG names himself. The reversal is unconfirmed. Until two-week candles hold $1.06–$1.25 and the downtrend structure inverts, the $1.67, $2.40 and $31.87 figures stay conditional and the $0.92 retracement remains the live downside risk. The chart argument also carries no position, flow or volatility data of its own, so it cannot say how much realized or implied volatility a test of the band would produce. Recent coverage of XRP whale inflows and XRP ETF inflows fills part of that gap, and our XRP technical analysis tracks the same two questions the map turns on: does the band hold, and does the structure reverse.