Dan Gambardello Calls Ethereum (ETH) Dip a Normal Correction After 13% Monthly Drop

Dan Gambardello's Right-Shoulder Read

Ethereum (ETH) has spent the past month in a controlled slide, and the decline is drawing a measured read from cycle analysts rather than alarm calls. The Ethereum price is down 13% over that span, and Dan Gambardello, who runs the research channel Crypto Capital Venture, set out his assessment in a video published on Oct. 19: the drop is, in his view, a normal correction taken on the approach to a bull market. His chart diagnosis holds that Ethereum is building the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline positioned above the prior high. That placement matters because a pattern whose neckline clears the previous peak tends to resolve upward once it completes. Confirmation requires two steps. Ethereum would first reclaim its 200-week moving average, then break the neckline, a sequence he described as an overwhelmingly strong bullish signal for crypto, for Bitcoin (BTC) and for altcoins alike. He anchored the argument in Bitcoin's own history: Bitcoin fell 25% going into January 2016, dropped 39% that August, and lost roughly 20% to its 20-week moving average across August and September 2020. Each of those drawdowns, he argued, landed as a business cycle turned into its expansion phase. The present correction sits at a comparable point, with quantitative tightening finished and a normalization phase under way that he compares to 2019. His Bitcoin work points the same way: the 20-week moving average, in the early $70,000s, is the level he has targeted since late September. Ethereum (ETH), the largest proof of stake network in the sector, maps to its own levels in his work: key support where the 200-day and 20-week moving averages converge near $2,100, and the 50-week moving average close by around $2,300. A retreat into that band, between $2,100 and $2,300, to finish the right shoulder, then a turn higher, would complete his scenario. He called $2,100 a very normal price zone for the asset.

The market is testing the first rung of that ladder. Spot sits near $2,384, down 2.1% over 24 hours and essentially unchanged since the video was published, and our composite support scoring rates $2,379 at 100 out of 100, the strongest cluster on the board, with $2,325 at 89/100, the pair our Ethereum technical analysis tracks most closely. Momentum leans the other way: the relative strength index reads 35.65 and the trend classifier holds a downtrend. Positioning is skewed long: the perp funding rate prints -0.0032% while the long/short account ratio stands at 2.50, with 71.4% of accounts on the long side. Price holding a heavy support shelf while momentum stays soft is the configuration a right shoulder needs. A daily close below $2,325 would strip the floor out from under it.

Accumulation Zone and the MACD Reset

The case behind the chart work runs through macro sequencing as much as price structure. Gambardello treats the lower range occupied by Ethereum (ETH), the smart contract platform whose economy spans layer 2 networks and a large staking base, as an accumulation zone, and not for the asset alone: he extends it across the altcoin market broadly. The previous cycle's equivalent range behaved the same way, in his account, after quantitative tightening ended; the bull market began once the purchasing managers' index, the survey gauge of factory and services activity, turned into expansion. The timing of the recent slide fits the pattern he describes: it arrived as a pullback shortly after the 20-week moving average crossed back above the 50-week moving average, and in his experience such crossovers in crypto are routinely followed by a retest of the averages themselves. His instruction to viewers was to strip emotion out of the decision and stay with the data. Accumulation has not been confined to smaller accounts, either: Bitmine's Ethereum stash has reached 6.04 million tokens, 4.9% of supply. The momentum leg rests on the moving average convergence divergence indicator, an oscillator that tracks trend momentum, which he said has fully reset since January 2025. A reset of that depth, in his framing, is what a market passes through on the way into a new cycle rather than the signature of a mid-cycle breakdown. That is the basis for his summary judgment that the correction is normal and a necessary stage before a new bullish cycle. Other large holders have read the same direction; Bitmine's chairman Tom Lee has sketched Ethereum well above $10,000 in 12 months. Should the $2,100 confluence give way before the shoulder completes, the sequence he describes falls apart.