Fundstrat's Sean Farrell Says Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Is In With $6B Treasury Buybacks

Sean Farrell's Treasury-Driven Bitcoin Call

Sean Farrell, who leads digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, argued in recent remarks that the low in Bitcoin (BTC) is already in place and that United States Treasury policy could set up the next leg higher. The call landed while the Bitcoin (BTC) price slipped 5.4% over the past 24 hours, the kind of short-term turbulence he says does not alter the medium-term picture. His anchor is the Treasury's latest quarterly refunding statement, in which the department confirmed it will keep buying back long-dated bonds at a pace of $6 billion per operation. In a buyback, the Treasury repurchases outstanding securities from the market and finances the purchases with short-dated bills, which trims the supply of 10- to 30-year debt available to investors. Some market participants have labeled the approach Operation Treasury Twist. Farrell said the program eases financial conditions and could put downward pressure on the dollar, an environment he views as favorable for assets positioned against monetary debasement, a role long championed under Bitcoin Maximalism. He went further on direction: “I think the low is behind us. We could see an environment next year where the dollar weakens, liquidity expands and monetary pressures ease. That should be quite positive for Bitcoin (BTC) and the crypto market broadly.” Farrell credited the buyback strategy laid out by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with a meaningful role in the crypto recovery so far, and placed his constructive window around 2027, when he expects macroeconomic conditions to turn supportive for the asset class. Near-term dips, in his framing, sit inside that backdrop rather than against it.

The mechanics behind the view deserve the closer read. Treasury left the size of its long-bond issuance unchanged for now, but Farrell flagged a wording change in the refunding statement: the department removed the phrase “at least” from its guidance on coupon issuance, the regular auction calendar for notes and bonds, where any supply cut would matter most for long-end pricing. In his reading, that deletion points toward smaller 10- to 30-year issuance in later quarters, though he was explicit that this is not yet a confirmed policy change, only a door left open. Behind the bond operations sits a fiscal backdrop he described as extraordinary. The US budget deficit runs at 6% to 7% of gross domestic product and public debt stands above 120% of GDP, figures he finds unusual with unemployment near 4.2%. Deficits of that scale in a relatively tight labor market, he argued, build pressure on the dollar's purchasing power over the long run. He expects the administration to lean toward looser financial conditions to finance the debt and to back strategic investments such as AI infrastructure, holding long-term rates below where open markets would set them while liquidity expands. In that scenario, corporate profit growth may be close to peaking even as liquidity growth accelerates, and capital would rotate toward alternative assets: Bitcoin (BTC) bought directly or through ETF vehicles, broader altcoin exposure, and long-term holders content to HODL through volatility rather than trade it. Farrell also named the near-term risks. Tensions linked to Iran and financing strains inside the AI sector could trigger fresh selling waves, a caution that runs alongside other warnings about AI stock selling dragging Bitcoin lower. His constructive outlook stays conditional on one thing: the Treasury continuing to support markets.

Why This Is a View, Not a Shift

The load-bearing document is the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement itself, and the operative detail is a deletion rather than an announcement. Removing “at least” from issuance guidance is not a commitment to shrink long-bond supply, and Farrell said as much. Our read is that the case rests on policy plumbing rather than chart structure, which is why the levels collected in our Bitcoin technical analysis and cycle frameworks such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart would frame the same tape differently. It also sits apart from reserve-accumulation debates around a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve; the speculation here concerns dollar liquidity, not government purchases of the coin. Until the Treasury acts on the wording it softened, this remains a thesis, not a shift.