Glassnode Sees On-Chain Demand Steering Bitcoin (BTC) Toward $96.7K

$86K Sell Wall Cleared

Bitcoin (BTC) price has settled just above the $85,000 sell wall, with the market trading near $86,000 after a Sunday rally lifted the weekly close roughly 2% higher. The $85,000 to $85,500 band had been flagged as a sell wall, a dense cluster of resting sell orders in one zone, among the classic order types traders watch because price must absorb them in full before it can climb. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode mapped that barrier in its Week 41 market pulse, noting the wall sat in front of a thin tape, with spot ETF inflows faded and trading volume near its low band. The Sunday session on Oct. 4 changed the picture: the weekly close printed about 2% above the prior one, and the firm's Monday update placed Bitcoin (BTC) above the contested zone. A week earlier, Glassnode had already named the next major resistance near $96,700, defined as the mean MVRV price. MVRV, short for Market Value to Realized Value, compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with the value of coins at the price they last moved on-chain, which makes it a gauge of where holders stand relative to their cost basis. The absorption stands out because of the conditions around it. Venue activity was weak and the ETF bid had cooled, yet the order stack above $85,000 cleared anyway. Volume near the bottom of its band usually makes breakouts fragile, since thin tapes reverse quickly, but follow-through here arrived within a single session. Our separate venue read recorded a 104% one-day jump in Coinbase Prime Bitcoin volume across the same stretch, an institutional-depth data point consistent with buyers working through the wall rather than around it. As our ongoing Bitcoin coverage has tracked in recent sessions, the market keeps rewarding demand that shows up on-chain.

Leverage Cools as On-Chain Money Builds

The engine behind the move matters as much as the level itself. Leverage has cooled rather than disappeared. Futures open interest slipped back inside its normal range, though it sits near the upper edge, and options open interest dropped after the quarterly expiry. Perpetual futures, contracts with no expiry date, saw their selling pressure ease after the dip a week earlier, the pullback that led a $187 million liquidation flush concentrated in longs. Off-chain positioning is therefore rated moderate and rising in the Week 41 summary, present but no longer the driver. Spot takers, traders who buy at the market price, ended the week as net buyers, and momentum eased back inside its range. The ETF bid tells a similar story of moderation: after the prior week's surge, weekly netflow stayed positive but far smaller, and fund trading activity sat near its low band. The stronger signals now sit on-chain. Active addresses, fees and transfer volume all rose above their high bands. Realized cap, which values every coin at the price it last moved, posted a monthly change far above its band. The hot capital share, the slice of realized cap held in recently moved coins, climbed further above its own band. Wallet-level accumulation adds a third line of evidence: blockchain data firm Santiment separately tracked wallets holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin (BTC) buying Bitcoin consistently since July. Short-term holder supply, coins younger than 155 days, also rose relative to long-term holder supply into the upper part of its range, which puts the newest cohort of buyers in a larger share of circulating coins than it held a month ago. None of this means the leveraged market is asleep; positioning remains near the top of its bands, so a fast drop in price would still find crowded books.

$96.7K Retest in Focus

COINOTAG's read is that this leg higher is carried by fresh on-chain capital rather than borrowed money, and that is precisely what puts the $96,700 mean MVRV price in play. The primary record backs the framing: Glassnode's official post states Bitcoin trades near $86k with derivatives positioning eased back into its normal range, while on-chain activity, new capital and profit-taking all run hot. The risk cuts both ways. Close to three quarters of supply is in profit, short-term holders sit well above their high band on unrealized gains, and ETF MVRV has moved above its high band too. If recent buyers keep holding, demand does the work toward $96,700; if they sell into that resistance, profit-taking turns the same demand into supply. The dollar side adds a second variable, the 18-month dollar strength backdrop where Mike McGlone's $86,000 call sits, and our Bitcoin technical analysis page carries the live levels.

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