Goldman Sachs Lifts 2028 Wafer Fab Equipment Outlook to $281B on AI Demand

Goldman Sachs Raises WFE Forecast to $281B

Goldman Sachs has lifted its global wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending forecast to $281 billion by 2028, citing sustained AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced logic chips. The bank now projects WFE spending of $150 billion in 2026, $218 billion in 2027, and $281 billion in 2028, representing year-over-year growth of 36%, 45%, and 29%, respectively. The upgraded outlook suggests the semiconductor equipment investment cycle is extending beyond a short-term recovery into a multi-year expansion, with DRAM supply constraints potentially persisting through 2028.

In a related regulatory development, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly preparing a record ¥40 billion budget request for fiscal 2027, marking a roughly 60% increase from previous years. The budget would fund enhanced oversight of crypto asset exchanges, AI-based market surveillance infrastructure, and cybersecurity measures, including support for migration to post-quantum cryptography. The proposal, first reported by Japanese media, also includes staffing increases for monitoring crypto trading platforms and frontier AI risk management.

The two developments highlight a converging theme: institutional and regulatory focus on AI-driven infrastructure is intensifying. While Goldman Sachs’ forecast specifically targets semiconductor capital spending, the FSA’s budget request signals that regulators are also prioritizing AI and digital asset oversight. For crypto markets, the indirect read-through is positive — stronger AI infrastructure investment often correlates with increased demand for blockchain-based data centers and compute networks, while clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto exchanges could improve institutional participation. However, the FSA budget remains a proposal subject to Japan’s Ministry of Finance review, and Goldman’s figures are estimates, not guaranteed expenditures.